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Wake Up

by Dennis Ranahan

‘Welcome to Arizona where the sun is shining outside and the stars on the field look to do battle in Super Bowl LVII. Today, we have a rematch of Super Bowl XIX pitting the NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers against the surprise AFC Champion Miami Dolphins.’

Could this actually come to be the words from the announcing crew at State Farm Stadium on February 12th? Are we really headed for a rematch of the only Super Bowl Dan Marino participated in and where he lost to Joe Montana and the 49rs to complete the 1984 season?

In a year that saw the Buffalo Bills open as the prohibitive favorite and expected to be challenged by the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC, it was the Dolphins who weaved their way through the competition to represent the AFC in the contest to decide the winner of the Vince Lombardi Trophy. Meanwhile, where the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams dropped like an anvil off a roof and the team that was a favorite in the NFC, the Green Bay Packers, missed the playoffs, it is the 49ers who emerged from the conference race to give Jimmy Garoppolo one more chance to silence his critics in his second Super Bowl appearance in four years.

All that is left to be decided this season is whether Tua Tagovailoa can continue his magical breakout season in this third professional year, or will he fall victim like Marino did 38 years ago to the 49ers in what turned out to be his best chance to earn a Super Bowl ring?

Am I getting ahead of myself here?

Sure, but that is my job. And I’ve got some pretty good information that points to these two teams meeting for the second time in a Super Bowl. Here is why:

The Miami Dolphins are doing something that is common for a Super Bowl winner … they are winning the close games while not dominating the point spread results and playing out of a division that is one of the best in football. All four teams in the AFC East Division had talent and seasons that could have spelled success for any of them. When a team is tested by worthy competition in their division, like the Dolphins were by the Bills, New York Jets and New England Patriots, they gain the mettle that serves them well in highly contested postseason games.

The Dolphins are also under the direction of a head coach they are inspired by to play their best. It was a surprise move that the Dolphins replaced Brian Flores with Mike McDaniel this offseason. From the outside, in his three years as head coach of the Dolphins, Flores seemed to have this team headed in the right direction. But, not unlike the National Basketball Association Golden State Warriors, who replaced Mark Jackson with Steve Kerr after Jackson seemed to turn a doormat franchise into a contender before Kerr made the Warriors champions, McDaniel did the same with the Dolphins.

In San Francisco, the 49ers stumbled out of the gate this year with an opening loss to the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field and were defeated on the road by two more teams that weren’t in the playoff field at season end, the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons. Then, a second week injury to second-year quarterback Trey Lance handed the offense back to Garoppolo in a year of redemption for a quarterback that gets reviews in contrast to his winning percentages.

In October, the 49ers acquired offensive juggernaut Christian McCaffrey, and the team just got better and better as their explosive offense was designed by their talented coach, Kyle Shanahan. Now, he gets to gain his own redemption after being the closest offensive coordinator in NFL history to winning a Super Bowl that didn’t. He was on the wrong side of Tom Brady’s miracle comeback in Super Bowl LI when his Falcons surrendered a 28-3 second half lead en route to a crushing overtime loss, 34-28.

So let’s get down …..

“Wake up Dennis, you’ve got to get to work?”

“What?”

“Why were you smiling in your sleep?”

“Oh, I was dreaming? I was thinking about the 49ers and Dolphins in Super Bowl LVII.”

“The Super Bowl? It’s not even Thanksgiving yet,” my wife said while still waking me up.

Do dreams come true?

Sometimes, maybe this time.

Let’s start here, with the game in Mexico this Monday night when the 49ers meet the Arizona Cardinals. After a character building tough win over the Los Angeles Chargers last Sunday night this one is going to come easy to the talented ‘Super Bowl bound’ 49ers.

Qoxhi Picks: San Francisco 49ers (-8) over Arizona Cardinals

Unwise

by Dennis Ranahan

I respect the elements the wise guys are seeing to lead them to back the New England Patriots tonight when they battle the Buffalo Bills to kickoff the 13the week of National Football League action.

This is a game between two division opponents with the team in first place two games ahead of their home underdog opponent.

Advantage home underdog.

The Buffalo Bills are now playing their third straight road game after having a scheduled home date shifted to Detroit to avoid the record snowfall in Buffalo. In that game, the Bills won in unconvincing fashion while covering the line by the score of 31-23. The Bills were favored by 7½ points in their win over the Cleveland Browns. Last week, on Thanksgiving, they battled the Detroit Lions yard-for-yard, point-for-point, before escaping the holiday with a three point win, 28-25.

Not high credentials for a team that was favored by 9½ points in Detroit and opened as a six point favorite in this AFC Division tilt against Bill Belichick’s squad.

Reasoning can deduce that if the Bills had trouble winning against Detroit on the road, they are likely to have more trouble trying to beat the Patriots by more points a road game later.

This is a rare Thursday night game where both teams come in following a full week between contests. Both the Bills and Patriots played on Thanksgiving, the Bills with their victory in Detroit and the Patriots losing to the Vikings in Minnesota.

While respecting the preponderance of evidence that the wise guys follow to come up with the Patriots (+3½) being the side tonight, I beg to differ on a more important criteria; the unique factors that feed this game.

When a first place team is meeting a team two games back in their standings, they are often playing their primary competition. But, the Bills are not playing their primary competition tonight, that comes from the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets, who both have better records than the Patriots while all four AFC East teams currently have more wins than losses.

The only reason the Patriots are considered in this division race at all is because they beat the Jets twice, 22-17 in October and 10-3 last month. Beating the Jets to remain in the race is a lot less difficult than beating the best team in the division while trying to knock them out of the top spot.

The Bills have had seven days to prepare for this game with the knowledge that their effort against Detroit would not be enough to beat the Patriots tonight. That puts the better team on full alert.

The better team knowing it has to play better while locked in a tight division race against quality teams is the perfect spot for the Bills to bounce off a narrow win over the Lions with a lopsided triumph against the Patriots.

Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-3½) over New England Patriots

Not Our Money

by Dennis Ranahan

I’ve got a couple great reasons to bet on tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup when the Indianapolis Colts entertain the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Only problem is, one of the great reasons is on one side, and the other great reason is on the other team. So, we can have a great point spread proposition on the Colts laying less than three points at home against a team they grade out better against or a team that owns a significant motivational edge in the Steelers.

It can also be ascertained by their recent play that the Colts are having fun playing for their recently named head coach, Jeff Saturday. The one time star on the Colts offensive line is now at the center of attention as the Colts midseason replacement for another popular with the players head coach, Frank Reich.

The first thing Saturday did when he took over a few weeks ago was reinstall Matt Ryan as the Colts starting quarterback. A totally anemic Indianapolis offense while under the direction of second-year quarterback Sam Ehlinger, which was a last ditch effort by Reich to give his team a chance while his offensive line wasn’t good enough to protect a stationary Ryan.

In other words, for Reich, plan A didn’t work and neither did Plan B, and it cost him his job. Saturday was a controversial hire, a man who had twice turned down opportunities to join the Colts coaching staff as an assistant, was suddenly the head guy.

How would this work out?

While I wouldn’t bet on Saturday ever hoisting a trophy won on Super Sunday while head coach, the ability to align a roster currently more talented than tonight’s opponent is within his grasp. Since his hiring three weeks ago, the team responded with a win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Saturday’s first game and a staunch challenge for the Philadelphia Eagles last week, a contest won by Philadelphia, 17-16.

Then bet on the Colts tonight?

Not a chance.

The Steelers have a head coach that is likely going to suffer his first losing season ever in Mike Tomlin. The man brings a sincere intensity to his role that inspires his team’s to their best efforts, and you can be sure that this group will do all they can to avoid handing Tomlin his first losing campaign in his 16 seasons as the Steelers head coach.

What these two teams have in common is that they both have proud traditions and are most often included when the playoff field is dealt. This year, both are unlikely participants in the postseason, and with a loss tonight, either of them could move precariously close to mathematically eliminated.

Which team has got the guile to get the win tonight?

The Steelers have our nod, but not our money.

Night Off

by Dennis Ranahan

The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles meet tonight in a game that before the season began you would think the season results were opposite. The Packers came into this season one of the favorites to represent the National Football Conference in Super Bowl LVII. In actuality, it is the Eagles who have the best record in the NFC and the Packers trail the Minnesota Vikings by four games with as much chance of earning a postseason slot as you or I.

The Eagles come into tonight’s action with the best record in football, nine wins against a single loss. But, it can be deduced that the Eagles are done dominating opponents based on losing their last three games against the point spread to the Houston Texans, Washington Commanders and Indianapolis Colts.

The Packers, on the other hand, are as reliable this year as an old car with a weak battery on a cold winter morning.

Green Bay has lost six of their last seven games and their offense, once the pride of Aaron Rodgers, is sputtering as much as a car running two cylinders short.

Now, the NFL is not like a dance, where you leave with the girl you brought.

In the NFL, teams that often dominated the first half of a season have trouble covering point spreads from the midpoint on. Put the Eagles in that category.

Now, there is no way we want to back a Green Bay team with only a shadow of their past effectiveness, but to back the Eagles giving six points to Aaron Rodgers is to jump on a bandwagon a bit late.

Don’t want the Eagles, not willing to back the Packers.

What does that leave us with tonight … a night off.

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