NFL 2025 Season - Off
Picksfootball
 

Headline Play

Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
SEASON:

Article Archive

Offseason
Winning Line
Worst to First
Super Bowl
Swat for a Win
Handicapping Dilemma
Name It
Numbers, Numbers, Numbers
On Site
Less has Won
Up Front
Wake Him
Personality
What Matters
Dark Questions
Submarine Factors
Early Loss, Lots of Wins
Conference Championships
Defensive Hammer
QB Compensation
Next Step
Any Hope
Two and Out
Fire One, Fire Two, Fire Three
Loss in Win
Divisional Playoffs
Snow Day
Home or Away
Early Call
Considering History
Stopped Again
Spiked by Challenge
Wild Card Weekend
Up and Coming vs. Over and Out
Ahead of Schedule
Line Clues
Coming and Going
Fair or Foul
Talent Gap
Rested and Ready
Playoff Revenge
Beep-Beep-Beep
Week 18
Both Right
Final Scramble
Unraveling the South
Win and Hope
Wasted Prayers
Long Odds
Last Punch
No Way Out
Week 17
Rams for the Future
Top Seed Grab
Better Make Sure
Dream Buster
One for the Road
Complicated Conclusion
Three for Christmas
Topped Out
Right Again
Week 16
First of Three
Surprises
December Battles
New York, New York
Two for Two
Unlocked
With the Book
Medicine Cabinet
Last Call
Week 15
Home Heat
Different Objectives
Top Underdogs
Who Know What
Wrong is Right
Need and Focus
Pair of Strugglers
Friends and Foes
Sour Bite
Week 14
Time Spent
Weather Factor
With Insurance
Like Locusts
Mischievous Grin
As Good as it Gets
On a Roll
Head Hunting
Week 13
Left the Station
By Design
Looking Ahead
Here It Comes
Offense versus Defense
In Your Dreams
Oh for Three
Thanksgiving Trifecta
Just Visiting
Week 12
First in Sight
Pair of Leaders
Bears on Top
Same Old, Same Old
Exposure Reduced
History Lesson
Juggling Act
Bounce Back Big
Fade to Black
Week 11
Highs and Lows
Finally They Meet
Battle for First Place
Mission From God
Business as Usual
Under Play
Unfinished Business
Second Half Sprint
Hope for the Future
Week 10
Pack Tonight
Two Sides
NFC West War
Points Count
White Flag
Blind Spot
Seems Easy
Call Waiting
Return Meeting
Week 9
Defense Still Matters
Good Again
Returning Quarterbacks
Not So Bad
Blowouts Rule
Dolphins Dipping
Score This
Missing Score
Week 8
Expectations Leveled
Grudge Match
NFL and Gambling World Cry Foul
High Seas
Race to Five
Struggling Playoff Teams
Argue This
DeMeco Team Due
Week 7
Weighing Wins
Addition by Subtraction
Sharp or Not
Spark the Fuse
Hocus Pocus
Boarding the Jets
Cushion Crunch
Hot Meet Stout
Pedestal Perch
Week 6
Tightening Races
Arrowhead or Hammer
Missing Signal Callers
Little Boys
Special Circumstances
Then and Now
Old Versus New
Dolphins to Titans
Week 5
More to Know
Dominance in Streaks
Two Back is Hot
Spike Side
41 is Up
Bounce Back
Deal with the Devil
Cool Your Jets
Sleep Walking
Week 4
Backup to Win
Cold and Hot
Not So Obvious
Early Start
Yes We Can
New Clues
Up is Down
Dooms Night
Dead Center
Week 3
That's Entertainment
Road Trip
Perfect and Imperfect
About Time
Better Bet
Quarterback Resurgence
Cruise Control
Look of a Champion
Sitting Duck
Week 2
No Respect
QB Rivalry
Inches Short
Kidding Aside
Coaching Advantage
Turf Toe Spike
Prime Opener
Solo Act
Early Returns
Week 1
NFC North Battle
Everybody is Right
Assumptions
Happy Ending
QB Swap
Beginning of the End
Too Easy
Road Cowboys
Choose Wisely
Schedule It
Season Win Totals
Super Bowl Pick
Credit Collision
Burn in Hell
Before Relevance
No Repeats
Home and Auto
So Close
Preseason 3
Cheshire Cat Grin
Reverse Records
Clear Choice
Moving Parts
Not Ready for Prime Time
Preseason 2
Success and Failure
Jury Out
Real Competition
Quarterback Rich
Worst to First
Time to Reload
Sweet Spot
Preseason Magic
Preseason 1
Two Up, Two Down
Book Bet
Gone Fishing
Smart Rats
Early Value
Streaky
Hall of Fame
Two Good Ones
Ups and Downs
     
 
Better for Us
by Dennis Ranahan

Half of the National Football League’s 32 teams are in action today with eight games on the schedule beginning with a pair of early contests involving the Kansas City Chiefs at the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders entertaining the Carolina Panthers.

In 2018, the NFL draft had a handful of top quarterback prospects and the Cleveland Browns tabbed Baker Mayfield with the first pick. After the New York Giants selected runningback Saquon Barkley with the second pick, the New York Jets selected USC Quarterback Sam Darnold.

At the time, I thought the Jets scored the best quarterback prospect in the draft, while results since that draft have pretty conclusively shown that the team that got the best quarterback out of college in 2018 was the Buffalo Bills. They selected Josh Allen with the seventh pick that year. It can also be argued, based on early career results, that Darnold was the weakest of those three signal callers and after some success in Cleveland, the Browns decided Mayfield was not their franchise leader.

Today, when the Panthers visit Washington, they have both the top quarterbacks taken in that draft on their roster. Darnold joined Carolina last year after the Jets selected Zach Wilson with the second pick in the 2021 draft, and acquired Mayfield this offseason after the Browns rolled the dice and traded for Deshaun Watson.

A quarterback with the skill set both Mayfield and Darnold have flashed on occasion can still have a productive career. In 1971, Jim Plunkett was the first player taken in the draft by the New England Patriots. The quarterback out of Stanford struggled to establish himself as a top tier signal caller during five seasons in Foxboro, and was sidelined by an injury in 1975 and replaced by Steve Grogan.

In 1976, he was traded to the San Francisco 49ers, and after two uninspiring campaigns in San Francisco was shipped across the Bay to join the Oakland Raiders.

Boom, as John Madden might have said, his career turned in Oakland as he twice led the Raiders to Super Bowl titles to complete the 1980 and 1983 seasons.

Will Darnold or Mayfield turn their pedestrian career starts into Super Bowl wins?

The Panthers are hoping one of them will take their team to the promiseland and today will open preseason action with Mayfield behind center. Unfortunately, both Mayfield and Darnold are currently with a team that needs a lot of help before they can match the success the Panthers enjoyed during the height of Cam Newton’s career which did land Carolina in Super Bowl 50, which resulted in a loss to Peyton Manning and his Denver Broncos.

While finishing his career in Denver, Manning spent most of his Hall of Fame career leading the charge of the talented Indianapolis Colts. During Manning’s seasons in Indianapolis, the Colts were perennial postseason participants and twice appeared in the Super Bowl. They beat the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI, and were downed by the New Orleans Saints three years later to complete the 2009 season.

With the talent the Colts had during the Manning years, their summer preparation seldom focussed on the scoreboard of a preseason scrimmage. They had a horrible record in preseason results while preparing for the games that counted beginning in September.

Today, the Colts open their preseason against the Buffalo Bills. A dozen seasons ago it would have been the Bills who were looking to gain some momentum even with a meaningless preseason win while the Colts were preparing for the regular season. Now, it is the Bills who are the dominant team that knows they enter the 2022 season as favorites to win the Super Bowl and it is the Colts who are looking to gain some revenge while in search of a franchise signal caller.

Indianapolis missed the playoffs last year while surrendering a final day of the regular season contest to the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. This is their first outing since that stinging defeat, and they are making this trip into the new season with another veteran quarterback looking to right their ship.

Two years ago, Indianapolis cracked the playoff field with veteran Phillip Rivers playing his final professional season with the Colts. Last year, Frank Reich’s squad had Carson Wentz behind center. Dissatisfied with those results, this year Indianapolis acquired longtime Atlanta Falcons Quarterback Matt Ryan, who had once led Atlanta to a Super Bowl berth.

The Colts have a lot more to play for in this matchup, and the Bills are certain of future success without regard for the final score in this practice game. Which means this, the books had Indianapolis as a road favorite … and they know what they are doing. The public stepped in and backed the talent of the Bills this morning and drove the line down to a pick 'em ... which is better for us.

Qoxhi Picks: Indianapolis Colts (pk) over Buffalo Bills