The Thanksgiving holiday weekend is often about travel and visiting family and friends. Visitors in the National Football League have also begun with a special weekend as all three teams on Thanksgiving Day, and night, beat their home hosts. Two of the three, the Las Vegas Raiders and Buffalo Bills, also beat the point spread while the homesteading Detroit Lions absorbed another agonizing close defeat while beating the spread against the Chicago Bears.
It has been a season for visitors in the NFL. Their three wins on Thursday upped the visiting team's season straight-up record against home teams to 87-80-1, and a profitable 98 and 70 mark against the point spread.
Is this weird?
It is by NFL tradition.
Last season, while the pandemic left most stadiums void of fans while the teams battled on the field, for the first time in league history more visitors than home teams won games straight-up during the regular season. Visitors were 128-127-1 straight-up in 2020, and the books seemed to have compensated for home teams not gaining the advantage of their home fans energy with the visitors posting only a 128-126-2 edge against the point spread.
But this season? How do we explain that visitors are having an even better year and the books are collecting on the visitor success against the point spread? Couple things to note right now, if this visitors success continues much longer, we will see adjustments in the point spreads that make visitors less of a profitable wager. This would combat what has been traditionally accepted; that home teams have a three point advantage over visitors. That is why the point spread price chart on this site shows opponents with the same point spread price when the home team is favored by a field goal.
Before the books make any major adjustments, there is one visitor this week that is in a very good spot to disappoint another home crowd.
The Cincinnati Bengals are an emerging force in the NFL. Two years ago, they had the worst record in the league, which provided them the top pick in the draft and they spent that spot on LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. Few would doubt that while picking a quarterback can be a hit and miss prospect, Burrow is the real deal. He even made the Bengals somewhat competitive during his rookie season, which was cut short by a season ending injury.
The Bengals then used their first pick in this year’s draft, the fifth overall choice, to select Burrows' primary college target and 2019 Fred Biletnikoff Award winner, Ja’Marr Chase. He has 47 catches this year for a gaudy 18.4 yard average and 8 touchdowns, a number only exceeded by two receivers this season, Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams.
The trajectory for the young Bengals is certainly headed in the right direction. Also, with the leader in the AFC North Division, the Baltimore Ravens, confronting a number of crippling injuries and facing a challenging division matchup with the Cleveland Browns on Sunday night, Cincinnati is hopeful that they can move into first place this weekend.
All that stands in their way, other than a Ravens loss, is their game against longtime division rival Pittsburgh. The Steelers come to town with a flight pattern that appears in opposition to the Bengals. The longtime champions of the AFC North come into action this week in last place among division opponents that all have winning records.
What does that leave us with on Sunday?
A Steelers team that could be buried in the cellar with a loss and a Bengals team with success seemingly within their grasp. Or in other words, a game at Paul Brown Stadium that the Bengals want but the Steelers need.
Need over want every time.
Chalk up another successful visit on Thanksgiving weekend.
Qoxhi Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) over Cincinnati Bengals