After two games we knew who the Tennessee Titans were this year. An opening day home loss to the New York Giants and a trouncing in second week action, 41-7, in Buffalo administered by the Bills, gave all the evidence we needed to know the Titans were no good.
But we were wrong.
The Titans went on to win eight of their next nine games while taking control of their AFC South Division race and convince the football world that they were very good.
But we were wrong.
Since that mid-season run to the top, the Titans have lost five straight games and come into play tonight tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars for their division lead with a 7 and 8 won/loss record. The Titans have toppled so severely from when we thought they were good, tonight they are double-digit home underdogs to the Dallas Cowboys.
How have the Cowboys arrived at this juncture in their season? They are coming off an important home win over the Philadelphia Eagles which keeps their slight hopes alive for winning the NFC East Division race. They currently trail the Eagles by two games with two games to play, and looking to improve their playoff seed is also available with a win if either the Minnesota Vikings or San Francisco 49ers stumble this week.
Last week’s victory over the Eagles not only kept the Cowboys division hopes alive, it also clinched a playoff berth for Jerry Jones’ boys.
So, how do the Cowboys ride into Tennessee tonight?
Are they prepped for a big effort, or are they destined to have a let down following their important competitive win last week and the ease by which the football world thinks they are going to win tonight?
I vote they come in overconfident and ripe for an upset loss.
But, before you run off to get the 14 points with the home team tonight, know this, the books want us to do just that. While there is a slight edge on the visitors tonight among public wagers, the line is moving more dramatically the Cowboys way than the public action warrants. This in all likelihood is a situation where the public and smart money are on the same side, the Cowboys, and it appears the books don’t want to get stuck with Dallas bets.
How do we know this?
Because the opening line on this game, brace yourself, was Dallas by three points. Now, there was going to be a severe adjustment on that number once it was confirmed that Tennessee would be without their starting quarterback, Ryan Tannehill, who is sidelined with an injury. That moved the line up seven points, to Dallas favored by ten. Then, Mike Vrabel decided to replace rookie back-up Malik Willis for tonight’s game with six-year veteran Joshua Dobbs.
Dobbs was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2017 out of the Tennessee Volunteers program. He has spent time on the roster of six different teams during his six years in the NFL, and tonight he is making his first career regular season start.
When you’ve lost five in a row and are on the verge of giving up a division lead you once seemed to have locked down, any move can be accepted as one looking for a turnaround. In all, the Titans have eight players missing from their lineup with injuries and their top runningback, Derrick Henry, is hampered by a hip injury that may also limit his action tonight.
So, what does that leave us with in this Thursday night matchup?
A Cowboys team not necessarily in a spot off a big win where we can expect a blowout effort against a Titans team struggling to not give up the top spot in their division race. From a purely motivational perspective, this bends the home team underdog’s direction. But from a talent angle, you gotta’ take the Cowboys and lay the number.
My tendency is to always side with the motivation, operating from the premise that talent is ruled by motivation. Problem with that tonight, is that the books want me to take the Titans, and rule number one in making money from sports wagering is to; never give the books what they want.
They want me to take the underdog tonight, so I’ll skip that without a thought of shifting all the way over to Dallas laying this bloated line.