The guys that make the most money in this business won with Drake over Wichita State. Most bettors lost with Drake, giving two points in a 53-52 win.
Finding value in the line is an art; knowing what side of a proposition has the advantage is an equation.
During the basketball season I’m a follower. I see where the line moves and know where to take advantage with what appears to be a solid winner. Sometimes it is a favorite; more often an underdog.
Historically, seven percent of teams that would have won on the opening line lose with the closing point spread. The wise guys capture that extra 7% bottom line profit, while the best our service can offer is capturing 93% of those profits based on releasing our games on gameday.
Last night, an 80% free throw percentage shooter missed the front end of a one-on-one in the highly contested game between Drake and Wichita State. There were six-seconds left in the game when Joseph Yesufu missed the front end, had he made it he would have moved Drake’s advantage to 2 points. A second successful free throw bloating Drake’s advantage to three points, 55-52.
If that would have happened, the chances of Wichita State making the three pointer to tie the score rise dramatically. Taking into consideration the way Drake played defense with a one point lead, allowing a wide open shot at a three, we can confidently deduce they would have allowed an open three pointer with a shooter having his performance spiked by the motivational edge of only being able to tie the game.
This game had overtime written all over it, but the missed free throw eliminated that possibility and fed the wise guys profits who were holding the under 140½ in big numbers. A victory margin that would have likely withstood an overtime and still finished under.
We will never be able to win every game the wise guys line up on based on them getting the better point spreads on some selections prior to game day. Still, finding the wise guy spots and wagering on them late will deliver wins with them 93% of the time.
That’s enough to generate substantial profits.