In 1972, I was at Candlestick Park when the Dallas Cowboys knocked the San Francisco 49ers out of the playoffs for a third straight season. Trailing 28-13 late in the fourth quarter, the Cowboys scored 17 points in the final six minutes to beat the 49ers 30-28. After the game, I rushed up to Lake Tahoe to get my money down on the Washington Redskins in the NFC Championship Game. I had built a database that showed teams that won a game with a dramatic comeback were sitting ducks in their next game.
The next Sunday in 1972, after the Cowboys beat the 49ers, they got slammed by the Washington Redskins, 26-3.
In 1980, the season before I opened Qoxhi Picks, the Dallas Cowboys staged another dramatic two touchdown comeback win over the Atlanta Falcons. Following the same formula, up to Tahoe I went to get my money down against Dallas the following Sunday. I got the game as a pick ‘em but by game-day the Cowboys had taken over the favorite role by one point. Someone more experienced than me suggested I should have waited to make my bet to get the better line and I recall telling him, “I don’t care about the line as long as the Eagles aren’t favored because they are going to win."
After all, my work showed that a team that made a dramatic comeback in the playoffs was going to lose their next game. And, in 1980, they did, Dallas lost to the Philadelphia Eagles that year, 20-7.
Using this theory as my guide, I had confidence that the Pittsburgh Steelers were going to beat the Buffalo Bills in the 1992 National Football League playoffs. After all, the prior week the Bills had staged the biggest comeback in NFL history, overcoming a 35-3 deficit to beat the Houston Oilers, 41-38.
Didn’t happen.