In 1972, I was at Candlestick Park when the Dallas Cowboys knocked the San Francisco 49ers out of the playoffs for a third straight season. Trailing 28-13 late in the fourth quarter, the Cowboys scored 17 points in the final six minutes to beat the 49ers 30-28. After the game, I rushed up to Lake Tahoe to get my money down on the Washington Redskins in the NFC Championship Game. I had built a database that showed teams that won a game with a dramatic comeback were sitting ducks in their next game.
The next Sunday in 1972, after the Cowboys beat the 49ers, they got slammed by the Washington Redskins, 26-3.
In 1980, the season before I opened Qoxhi Picks, the Dallas Cowboys staged another dramatic two touchdown comeback win over the Atlanta Falcons. Following the same formula, up to Tahoe I went to get my money down against Dallas the following Sunday. I got the game as a pick ‘em but by game-day the Cowboys had taken over the favorite role by one point. Someone more experienced than me suggested I should have waited to make my bet to get the better line and I recall telling him, “I don’t care about the line as long as the Eagles aren’t favored because they are going to win."
After all, my work showed that a team that made a dramatic comeback in the playoffs was going to lose their next game. And, in 1980, they did, Dallas lost to the Philadelphia Eagles that year, 20-7.
Using this theory as my guide, I had confidence that the Pittsburgh Steelers were going to beat the Buffalo Bills in the 1992 National Football League playoffs. After all, the prior week the Bills had staged the biggest comeback in NFL history, overcoming a 35-3 deficit to beat the Houston Oilers, 41-38.
Didn’t happen.
The Bills followed their Wild Card victory over the Oilers with a win at Three Rivers Stadium against the Steelers, 24-3. The Bills also won the American Football Conference that year with a win over the Miami Dolphins, 29-10. That season, in Super Bowl XXVII, the Cowboys ended the Bills successful run by pinning them with their third straight Super Bowl loss, 52-17.
Seems betting against a team that made a dramatic comeback the prior week in a playoff game wasn’t a sure thing. The only sure thing against the point spread in the NFL is a game already won.
Turns out history had another example of a team winning their next game after a big comeback. Before I was charting football results, the Detroit Lions overcame a 24-7 halftime deficit to beat the 49ers in a Western Conference Playoff Game in 1957.
In those days, the NFL had one postseason game to determine their champion, and the only time an additional playoff game was staged was if two conference foes had the same regular season record. In 1957, the 49ers and Lions each completed their regular season campaign with eight wins and four losses.
After Detroit overcame the 24-7 halftime deficit to beat the 49ers, 31-27, they met the Cleveland Browns in the NFL Championship Game. The Lions won that game with a blowout victory over Paul Brown and his Eastern Conference Champion squad, 59-14.
Last week, the 49ers and Lions met in a playoff game again and this time the 49ers trailed by a 24-7 halftime score. Like the Lions in 1957, the 49ers overcame the 17 point halftime deficit to win the game with the victory advancing San Francisco to Super Bowl LVIII.
Four years ago, the buzz was around the Chiefs making their first Super Bowl appearance since winning the title to complete the 1969 season with an upset win over the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl IV, 23-7. Fifty years after winning that game, the Chiefs beat the 49ers with a fourth quarter comeback, 31-20
Since that Patrick Mahomes led comeback, the Chiefs have established themselves as the best team in the league. Mahomes has led Andy Reid’s squad to six straight AFC Championship Games and four times earned a Super Bowl date with a pair of wins already in their three most recent Super Bowl appearances.
The victory over the 49ers to complete the 2019 season ended a 50 year Super Bowl drought for the Chiefs, and on February 11 Kansas City looks to win their third Super Bowl in the prior five seasons. The 49ers, have five Super Bowl rings with victories in their first five Super Bowl games, four with Joe Montana as their starting quarterback and one with Steve Young directing their offense.
Young led the 49ers to the title in 1994, and the 49ers have lost their two most recent Super Bowl appearances. With Colin Kaepernick behind center in 2021, San Francisco lost to the Baltimore Ravens. That loss, and the one against the Chiefs four years ago, makes the 49ers the team this year looking to end a Super Bowl drought.
Super Bowl experienced quarterback Patrick Mahomes against second-year field general Brock Purdy. If that is the quarterback pairing, why are the 49ers favored?