Is the National Football League’s season going to end where it started?
When the season kicked off with their traditional Thursday night home opener hosted by the defending Super Bowl Champion the game was played in Kansas City between the Chiefs and Detroit Lions. That game was a close decision that went to the visitors, 21-20.
Now, after 18 regular season weeks and two postseason weeks, the two teams that opened the season are still left in the running for Super Bowl LVIII. Both are underdogs, the Lions are in San Francisco to meet the 49ers, and the Chiefs look to extend their defense of their Super Bowl LVII triumph when they visit Baltimore and do battle with the Ravens.
The 49ers are favored by seven points, the Ravens by three-and-one-half.
The 49ers were the top seed in the National Football Conference and the Ravens the top seed in the American Football Conference. Prior to 1975, the NFL predetermined which divisions had the home field advantage in the playoffs before the season began, but starting in 1975, home playoff games were determined by regular season records.
Fourteen times the two teams meeting in the Super Bowl were the top seeds from their conference. As for Super Bowl winners, a number one seed has won 26 times, a second seed 10 times, a third seed, fifth seed and sixth seed twice each. The fourth seed has produced six Super Bowl Champions.
This season, while the 49ers and Ravens are top seeds, the Kansas City Chiefs were the third seed in the AFC and the Detroit Lions were the third seed in the NFC.
The top seeds are at home this week and both had interesting opening games in the playoffs. It may be that the week off plus not using their starters in the final week of regular season play because both the Ravens and 49ers had already clinched their top spot, left their starting units a bit rusty. The Ravens were tied with the Houston Texans at the end of the first half, 10-10, before asserting their talent to earn a lopsided 34-10 victory.
The 49ers led their Divisional round playoff opponent, the Green Bay Packers, by a single point at the end of the first half, and needed a fourth quarter comeback to edge Green Bay, 24-21.
Both top seeds should be more in sync at the start of their Championship Games this week, and that could spell bad news for the two teams that started this year, the Lions and Chiefs. Neither are likely to be in the mix when the Super Bowl LVIII Champion is crowned in Last Vegas on the second Sunday in February.
This season, for much of the year, looked like a showdown for Super Bowl LVIII between the 49ers and Ravens. Now, on the doorstep to the 16th Super Bowl involving two number one seeds, the Lions and Chiefs would like to upset that probable matchup.
If they fail to beat the home favorites, can they at least play competitively enough to beat the spread with the Lions getting a touchdown on the line and the Chiefs being a field goal underdog?
Last week, three of the four favorites won their games straight-up, while the Buffalo Bills failed in that role against the Kansas City Chiefs. But, the Packers got the money on the point spread with their three point defeat while getting double-digits on the line.
The books love it like that, two dogs and two favorites winning the wagers.
This week, I find it very difficult to bet against the favorites, but our week of work is just beginning.