When a National Football League team is eliminated from the playoffs, like eight teams are entering this second-to-last weekend of regular season play, they often overachieve. This is because they have nothing to lose, so the pressure of winning is replaced by an opportunity to go all out in a last ditch effort to earn some saving grace from a disappointing year.

One must be very careful in picking against a team with nothing to lose, particularly versus a team that needs a win. In some corners the team that needs the game would land them on the side of them getting it.

Not my corner.

But, like most rules, there are expectations.

Like this weekend, when the New England Patriots visit Buffalo to try and knock the Bills out of the playoff hunt. Don’t you know Bill Belichick would like nothing better than to interrupt the team that has finished first in his division the past three seasons out of the playoffs this year?

So, take the Patriots and the generous two touchdown point spread?

No.

What we have with Buffalo is a team that is used to winning now on the cusp of being ousted before the playoffs begin. Last week, as nearly two touchdown road favorites, the Bills needed a valiant late comeback to eke out a two point win over the mismanaged Los Angeles Chargers.

If they barely got by the Chargers why not take two touchdowns on the spread with the Patriots on Sunday?

Because, the Bills were in a motivational trap against the Chargers. Los Angeles had just cleaned house with the firing of both their head coach and general manager. It was the Chargers who had nothing to play for last week while the Bills were needing a win to stay in the hunt for a postseason berth.

This week, the Bills are on full alert against a New England team that already beat them once this year, upsetting Buffalo in Foxboro in the middle of a Buffalo six game point spread losing streak. No one who knew anything about the game thought the Patriots had a chance when these two teams met in October, including the Bills, who lost as a 7½ point road favorite, 29-25.

This week, the Bills are preparing for their must win home game while viewing films of that loss and last week’s narrow triumph over an equally inept squad, the Chargers.

From such film studies confidence does not overcome the need to play better.

The Bills have suffered the worst of it this year, and yet overcame a minus three turnover differential in Los Angeles last week to collect one of their three end of the season must wins to advance to the postseason.

They will not be taking New England lightly when they have the Miami Dolphins scheduled for the season finale next Sunday.

The books know it, that is why the Bills opened favored by a dozen points. That huge line was enough to encourage nearly half the wagers on the Patriots side. But the books weren’t satisfied, they wanted more New England money and have continued to add points on this line to where Belichick and his Patriots are now getting 14 on the spread.

Let’s see, the books want us to take the points with New England.

Never give the books what they want.

Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-14) over New England Patriots