NFL 2024 Season - Week 17
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Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
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Week 17
Need over Nothing
Christmas Grinch
Week 16
Numbers, Numbers, Numbers
Vintage 2018
Penix Debut
Dog Day
Playoff Position
Rest of the Story
Different Sundays
Run Some Tests
Without and With
Week 15
Two Tonight
Playoff Chances
Wild Card Challenge
Best of the Best
Next
Dire Straits
And It's Good
Bloated Lines
Week 14
Running up the Score
Challenge Me
Finding Reasons to Win
Crab Feed
Week Off
Good Enough
Buyers Regret
Pulled the Rug
Week 13
Mile High Hopes
Top and Bottom
Fourth Time the Charm
Bounce Back
Engage Spark
Line Up
Out in the Cold
Thanksgiving Visitors
Good Enough
Motivation on Steroids
Week 12
Second Best
Heavyweight Bout
QB's Ins and Outs
Everybody In
Too Easy
Walk the Plank
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Smart and Scared
by Dennis Ranahan

The National Football League will present a pair of Monday Night Football games this evening on opposite sides of the eastern seaboard. The New York Giants are hosting the Green Bay Packers and the Miami Dolphins are at home to battle the Tennessee Titans.

The wagering public has no trouble picking both these two games, they like the favorites. If there are eight bettors at the window getting down on the Giants home game, seven of them are taking the Packers and laying the points. If the crowd reaches 19 people wagering on the game at Hard Rock Stadium tonight, 17 of them are there to get down on the Dolphins.

That is too much public action on the favorites to have me jump on their side with any confidence, leaving me much more interested in taking a longer look at the underdogs to see if there is viability for a play on the Giants or Titans.

The wise guys think so.

They are taking the Giants tonight.

I suspect the smart money move to the Giants is driven by a key injury, it usually is, and we have it tonight with the Packers. The Packers had won only two games through October but have been on a playoff drive in recent weeks. Before their victory last Sunday night over the Kansas City Chiefs, the NBC graphic department developed an uncanny comparison between Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers. Seems the two quarterbacks began their careers with the Packers, brace yourself, with identical statistics.

Now, whether Love can develop a career that earns a Hall of Fame first ballot honor, as Rodgers no doubt will, is yet to be seen. But in recent weeks, the Packers have won four of five games to elevate their season into playoff contention. Love is a big reason, and his primary receiver, Christian Watson, is a major factor in their success.

Last Sunday night, in the waning moments of their win over the Chiefs, Watson gained a key first down and then, as a smart player would, looked to get down in bounds to keep the clock running. The move turned disastrous, as his sudden stop reinjured the hamstring that had sidelined him early in the season during a time Green Bay was struggling.

Tonight, Green Bay is favored on the road off that emotional win last week and without the services of Watson due to his injured hamstring. That is perhaps why the wise guys like the homesteading Giants with the six points on the spread.

The loss of Watson cools me on the Pack, but doesn’t send me over to the Giants side.

The second Monday night game starts at the same time as the first, 8:15 p.m. local time. While the Packers success has been keyed more by their defense, the Dolphins first place standing in the AFC East Division is mostly attributable to an offense that seemingly starts scoring before the last notes of the National Anthem are sung.

Tua Tagovailoa’s quarterbacking and a receiving corps led by Most Valuable Player candidate Tyreek Hill, has tallied the most points in the AFC while entering this week with 384 and trailing only the 388 points scored by the Dallas Cowboys in the entire league. They do it with speed, and a coach, Mike McDaniel, that seems a step ahead of his rivals and does it with a sly smile and unassuming manner.

He isn’t Bobby Knight in demeanor, but more like your favorite history teacher in high school. While his team put up 70 points early in the season in a win over the Denver Broncos, McDaniel didn’t spend a moment celebrating the one-sided triumph but was more intense on what to do next to get better.

What the Dolphins need to do better is elevate their game against the best competition. While Miami matches the fewest losses in football this season, all their defeats have come against teams with winning records. Namely, the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. All nine of their victories have come against teams with losing records when they played.

Tonight, the Dolphins host the Tennessee Titans, who are buried in the cellar in the AFC South Division with four wins against eight losses. Only once did the Dolphins get tripped up on the point spread while beating a subpar team, that was three weeks ago when as 14 point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders they escaped with a 20-13 victory.

They are 14 point favorites tonight, and while I wouldn’t be surprised if they won and covered this game, I’m not betting on it.