The National Football League offers us a good one tonight. The two Super Bowl teams from last year’s final leg to earn the Vince Lombardi Trophy, and the only two teams in the entire NFL that could take the field with more wins and less losses between them this season. The Kansas City Chiefs play host to the team they beat in Super Bowl LVII, the Philadelphia Eagles.
When one thinks of the Chiefs, the first thing to come to mind is their dynamic quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. And while he remains the pinnacle of quarterback play in the NFL, it might surprise you to know that the Chiefs have allowed the fewest points in the league this season. At the same time, their 2023 offense is ranked in the middle of the league; 14 teams have scored more points than the Chiefs entering play this week.
So, if Mahomes still leads a solid offense, and Andy Reid’s defense has allowed the fewest points in the league, you might assume that the Chiefs appear poised for another Super Bowl run.
Not so fast.
The Chiefs have a couple marks against their chances of advancing to their fourth Super Bowl in five years. First, they lost their season opener to the Detroit Lions. Does that matter? It sure does. Only one of the previous 57 Super Bowl winners lost at home on opening day. For the record, that was the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who beat the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII.
Second, the Chiefs come into tonight’s game with one less win than the visiting Eagles and it is Philadelphia, who could well have the eye of the tiger in their quest to erase that bitter Super Bowl defeat.
Which creates a dual problem in handicapping this game.
First, I would think that a team that lost the previous Super Bowl to their regular season opponent would have a natural edge to gain revenge, but history shows that of the eight times two teams that met in the Super Bowl the previous year the team that won the Super Bowl has also won the regular season matchup. Still, if the Eagles had one less victory this season than the Chiefs, Kansas City is 7-2 this year and the Eagles are 8-1, I would take the Eagles plus the points tonight.
But, because the Eagles have one more win, a victory by Philadelphia in tonight’s game would require them pulling two games ahead of the Chiefs in the won/loss column. From a talent and math perspective, it is more likely that two teams as evenly matched as Kansas City and Philadelphia would have the same record after tonight’s game instead of the Eagles pulling two games ahead of the favored Chiefs.
Even if a Chiefs win is a more likely prospect, there is the factor of the point spread. The small number, 2½ to 3 points, could play the decisive role in this game just as it did yesterday in two contests when the Los Angeles Rams and Denver Broncos won by one point over the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings respectively, only to lose the bet while giving 2½ points on the line.
Then there is the matter of their division standings. The Eagles are in a war with their traditional rival, the Dallas Cowboys, in the NFC East. The Chiefs appear to have a more clear path to the AFC West title while battling the likes of three teams that do not have a winning record, the Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. From a need factor, despite the Eagles having a better record, Philadelphia has the edge of being more challenged in their division race.
So, there you have it.
This is great viewing, two outstanding teams that in all likelihood will be in the mix when their conference titles are decided in January. Tonight, the Eagles will look to assert that this campaign is theirs, while history shows last season was the Chiefs.