The Green Bay Packers head to Las Vegas tonight to meet the Raiders in a battle between two teams that have been to the top of the mountain in the National Football League and are currently well below their highest standards.
The Packers are in their first year with an offense not run by Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers. Over the past 30 years those two current and future Hall of Fame quarterbacks won a pair of Super Bowls and always had the Packers in the hunt for NFL superiority. Jordan Love, who is behind center now for Green Bay, may develop into a competent quarterback, but in his first season running the Packers offense he has not looked like Hall of Fame material.
Still, with him running the Packers and the Raiders without Jimmy Garoppolo, who started the week in concussion protocol, Green Bay was installed as a road favorite. Then, on Friday, it was announced that Garoppolo had cleared protocol and would be starting tonight, and the spread shifted to where the home team is now favored by two or more points for this primetime showdown.
The Packers two wins this season have come against the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints, and they have lost a close contest to the Atlanta Falcons on the road and were handled last week at Lambeau Field by the Detroit Lions, 34-20. Those results would suggest that even with as many losses as wins this year, the Packers record may be a notch ahead of what their talent dictates.
The Raiders have only one win this year, an opening day victory in Denver over the strugglingly Broncos, 17-16. Setbacks to the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers have followed that opening weekend victory.
Now for the math on this game.
I might have had a play on this game if Las Vegas was still the underdog, but laying points with a team riding a three game losing streak does not entice me to make a selection on the home team. Taking the visitor, who would look to gain a third win while handing the Raiders a fourth loss appears to be a short straw too.
In a contest between two below average squads it is very unlikely that the visitors would pull two games ahead of a team on their home field. With a win, the Packers would move to 3-2 and drop the Raiders to 1-4. It is much more likely from a statistical viewpoint that tonight will end with both the Raiders and Packers owning equal 2 and 3 won loss records.
With that in mind, my leanings would be to the Raiders tonight.
But taking Las Vegas as a bet-on favorite that opened as an underdog is not the kind of situation that begs for a wager. It is more a contest for viewing purposes only.