The National Football League serves up a pair of Monday Night Football contests tonight beginning with a 4:15 p.m. Pacific Time matchup in Florida between two undefeated teams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles. One hour after that start, the Cincinnati Bengals host the Los Angeles Rams.
The later game offers two teams in need of a win. The Bengals, who advanced to the Super Bowl two years ago and the AFC Championship Game last season, are still looking for their first victory in 2023. They opened their campaign in Cleveland and lost to the Browns, 24-3, and suffered a home defeat last Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens, 27-24.
For the record, the Bengals also lost a pair of games to open the 2022 campaign and then went on to win 12 of their next 13 point spread decisions and advance to the AFC title game after winning the AFC North Division with a 12-4 mark. Can they have the same kind of turnaround this season?
The problem this year that they didn’t confront last season is that their star quarterback, Joe Burrow, is hobbled with a calf injury that hampered his play last week and may keep him out of the fray tonight. The Rams may not be in such a dire position as the Bengals in needing a win, but playing out of the NFC West Division and having to chase the San Francisco 49ers, who beat them last week, puts pressure on them seemingly needing a win every week.
While coaches will try to hide the availability of a player for competitive reasons, particularly when a quarterback is questionable, the books don’t lie. You can always judge the availability of an athlete by the line move. This week, the Bengals opened as a 6½ point favorite for tonight’s game, a line that was shifted early to Cincinnati by only 1½ points. What could we deduce by that move? Burrow is not playing tonight.
Then the Bengals played coy, or they didn’t really know for sure, if Burrow would start tonight or not. During the week, the line has grown to where today the Bengals are favored by a field goal margin. That spread still doesn’t give us a clear indicator whether Burrow will or won’t be the starter tonight, but it does give clear evidence that he is not 100%.
If the Bengals want my opinion, they haven’t solicited it yet, I’m telling them to shut down Burrow until he is 100%. Calf injuries do not heal while being strained, they need rest. If the Bengals do play their valuable quarterback tonight, they are tempting fate with the possibility of further injuring the calf or worse having Burrow suffer a more debilitating injury while not able to avoid the Rams pass rush on the bad leg.
Whether it is Burrow or backup Jake Browning behind center for Cincinnati tonight, it is the Bengals most in need of a win and the shaved point spread makes a cover that much more likely.
Both games offer edges we have determined are worth a wager tonight, and those selections are now posted on this site.
Qoxhi Picks: Cincinnati Bengals (-3) over Los Angeles Rams