I was right to go against the Seattle Seahawks on opening day, and wrong to skip them last week in Detroit. This Sunday, when the Seahawks host the Carolina Panthers, the motivational advantage for a Seattle game takes another dramatic swing.
They opened the season as a bet-on home favorite against an underrated Los Angeles Rams squad looking to rebound from their horrible 2022 campaign. After winning Super Bowl LVI over the Cincinnati Bengals, the Rams compiled the worst regular season record in history for a defending Super Bowl champ. Five wins and a dozen losses.
Suffice it to say the Rams had something to atone for coming into this season, and that edge ran smack into a Seattle Seahawks squad looking for a second straight winning season after earning a surprise trip to the playoffs last year. It was Pete Carroll’s first year in more than a decade looking to win without Russell Wilson running his offense.
The challenge was met by the Seahawks. They opened the 2022 season with a victory over their old quarterback and the Denver Broncos. By season's end, Seattle had cracked the field of six National Football Conference playoff teams while Wilson had struggled in Denver and the Broncos were looking for a new coach.
The challenge that spiked the Seahawks play last year led to veteran quarterback Geno Smith enjoying a career year. The need to overcome the loss of Wilson is now replaced by confidence.
Confidence can be a killer to performance.
Still, last week, this Seahawks team that is scheduled on my charts for a down year won as an underdog against the Lions at Ford Field. It was a perfect spot for Seattle, coming off a loss, bet-against and versus a Lions squad puffed up by their opening night road victory over the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs.
I was blinded last week on the strength of the Seahawks play by my contention that Seattle is in a down year. But, what should have happened did happen, and a lot of people in my business had the Seahawks last week and won.
I didn’t.
Wrong.
The situation was too good in the Seahawks favor last week not to capitalize on their situation. But, what’s great about all this, is we get a perfect setup this week that both aligns with current conditions and our overall plotting of season-long team direction. This week, we get to go against the Seahawks while they return home off that spirited road victory to again be a bet-on home favorite against a team geared for a big effort.
The Carolina Panthers have lost their first two games. On opening day they won the statistical battle in yards gained and allowed, but the Atlanta Falcons won on the scoreboard by two touchdowns, 24-10. Last week, they were defeated on their home field while the New Orleans Saints picked up their second win of the season under the direction of new quarterback Derek Carr. The Saints opened the campaign two weeks ago with a road win over the Denver Broncos, 16-15, and got by Carolina on Monday night, 20-17.
The Panthers started rookie quarterback Bryce Young the first two weeks, but an ankle injury will keep the first pick in the 2023 draft sidelined this week. In his place will be veteran Andy Dalton. It is worth noting that before Young was declared out early in the week, the Panthers were a six point underdog. After the rookie’s absence was revealed, the point spread dropped to the Seahawks by 5½ points. Another half-point has been shaved off that line even though a huge majority of the public bets are backing the homesteading Seahawks.
Maybe the wise guys figure the veteran quarterback offers a better chance for the Panthers, or perhaps the move is in response to one of my basic motivational theories; a team forced to use a backup quarterback gets a huge motivational boost.
We won the first week with the Seahawks, missed taking them in the second, and now have them dead-to-rights scheduled for a loss in third week action against the visiting Panthers.
You know what’s best about this?
It’s right.
Qoxhi Picks: Carolina Panthers (+5) over Seattle Seahawks