The San Francisco 49ers and New York Giants kickoff third week action in the National Football League tonight at Levi’s Stadium, the game is set to start at 5:15 p.m. Pacific Time. Both teams earned a postseason date last season, that is where the similarities end.
The 49ers trek into the 2022 playoffs ended when their quarterback was injured in the NFC Championship Game against the Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers were close but lost when Brock Purdy went down. That is the only game the 49ers second-year signal caller has started in his NFL career and not won.
The Giants slipped into a postseason slot last year behind the much improved play of quarterback Daniel Jones and keeping runningback Saquon Barkley both healthy and productive. That side of the ball was complimented last year by the emergence of a top notch defense which was spearheaded by rookie defensive lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux. Last season, the fifth overall choice in the 2022 draft, tallied 27 tackles and four sacks for the Giants. Through two games this season, Thibodeaux has one tackle and no sacks.
New York’s defense allowed 40 points in their opening loss to the Dallas Cowboys, and were dented for 28 points last week by a very suspect Arizona Cardinals offense.
Still, the Giants escaped State Farm Stadium with a dramatic come-from-behind 31-28 victory, all 31 New York points scored in the second half.
So, is the Giants offense back on track?
I don’t think so. If it takes falling behind the Cardinals by three touchdowns to inspire this team’s talent enough motivation to eke out a win, how are they going to do against perhaps the best team in football?
Poorly, I suspect.
The Giants foray into the postseason ended a streak of five consecutive losing seasons. Their bounce up last year was a combination of pushing off those disappointing years and having most things go right for the team. They even opened their playoff season last year with a win over the NFC team with the second best record in the conference in 2022, the Minnesota Vikings.
This year, the offense has already lost the often injured Barkley, as the talented runner is out of tonight’s game. The Giants are also working on a short turnaround that had them stay in the west all week following their contest last Sunday in Glendale.
Season-to-season tendencies would prompt the thinking that this is going to be a down year for the Giants and second-year head coach Brian Daboll. As for the 49ers forecast, losing the NFC Championship Game appears rectifiable this season.
The 49ers had motivational factors against them in their first two games, at Pittsburgh and against the Rams last Sunday in Los Angeles. They won anyway, 30-7 over the Steelers and 30-23 at SoFi Stadium.
What does that mean tonight?
Well, the 49ers are not in a motivation disadvantage for the first time this year, but they are in a spot where they are forced to lay double-digits against an opponent that advanced to the playoffs last year. Over the past ten seasons, there have been 99 NFL teams that were favored by 10 to 11 points at home. Eighty-four of those double-digit favorites won their games straight up, but the point spread record leans to the teams getting the points, 54-41-4.
I’m not getting what I usually lean on, a team challenged to have to play their best to succeed. No, tonight I simply have the better team, at home with perhaps the only price to pay being the hefty number at the window. I think talent will rule the night and that the point spread price won’t interfere with cashing a winning ticket.
Qoxhi Picks: San Francisco 49ers (-10½) over New York Giants