My work the past four decades with Qoxhi Picks has allowed me to develop and test a number of theories on when teams are scheduled to play above their potential and when they are slated for a clunker. Every team will have a down game sometime during the season. In 1994, when I was covering the San Francisco 49ers for a segment on their weekly highlight show, I got to see up close how talented and well coached the 49ers were. With Steve Young running their offense, this team seemed destined for a Super Bowl victory that they would indeed earn by the end of that campaign.

But, when that team came into a horrible motivational spot in fifth week action while favored by nine points in San Francisco over the Philadelphia Eagles, they got slammed, 40-8. People in the press box didn’t understand how that could happen … but my motivational charts were indicating in bold print that the Eagles plus nine points was the play that day. The 32 point win by the underdog Eagles was a little more one-sided than we could have expected, but San Francisco never lost another game that year that they needed. Their only defeat after that loss to Philadelphia was a final day of the regular season setback to the Minnesota Vikings that came after they had already clinched home field advantage in the playoffs.

What that result showed in 1994, was the idea that any team can win or lose in the right situation. Thus the true statement that on any given Sunday any NFL team can win. But, while a team can win on any given Sunday, it doesn’t mean any team can win if the situation does not dictate that outcome.

Which brings us to the present. I track not only teams that took advantage of good motivational spots, but just as importantly, those teams that failed when circumstances indicated they would be at their best. Through this process, I can identify the teams in the middle of the league that can be most counted on to not overcome a bad situation or miss the opportunity when a good one arises.

Last week, we learned something about the Indianapolis Colts … they are not good enough to take advantage of a situation ripe for a win. They had the Jaguars in a motivational hole, a Jacksonville squad coming off their rebound season in 2022 after compiling the worst record in the league the previous two years. After twice getting the first pick in the college draft, the Jaguars cracked the playoff field last year, won their first postseason game and beat the spread in Kansas City while getting 9½ points in a seven point loss, 27-20, in the Divisional Round. Jacksonville was coming off this initial success with Trevor Lawrence running their offense last season, three straight preseason victories this August, and a game coming up this week against the highly regarded Kansas City Chiefs. One could have excused the Jaguars from looking past an Indianapolis team with both a first-year head coach, Shane Steichen, and rookie quarterback, Anthony Richardson.

Despite this trap, the Jaguars succeeded. Mark them down among the top teams that are too good to go against even in a tough motivation spot.

Also, the Colts loss deems them a team not good enough to take advantage of an advantageous set of motivational factors. Until further notice, the Colts are among the bottom five teams in the league and the Jaguars are plotted with the best five squads.

If the Colts couldn’t win as a home team underdog in a sweet spot, why would they win this week on the road against an improved Houston Texans team looking to rebound from their season opening loss in Baltimore?

They wouldn’t.

Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (-1) over Indianapolis Colts