NFL 2024 Season - Week 16
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Week 16
Playoff Position
Rest of the Story
Different Sundays
Run Some Tests
Without and With
Week 15
Two Tonight
Playoff Chances
Wild Card Challenge
Best of the Best
Next
Dire Straits
And It's Good
Bloated Lines
Week 14
Running up the Score
Challenge Me
Finding Reasons to Win
Crab Feed
Week Off
Good Enough
Buyers Regret
Pulled the Rug
Week 13
Mile High Hopes
Top and Bottom
Fourth Time the Charm
Bounce Back
Engage Spark
Line Up
Out in the Cold
Thanksgiving Visitors
Good Enough
Motivation on Steroids
Week 12
Second Best
Heavyweight Bout
QB's Ins and Outs
Everybody In
Too Easy
Walk the Plank
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Talent Watch
by Dennis Ranahan

The New York Jets and Cleveland Browns are a pair of teams that have a lot higher hopes this season than their results in recent years … make that decades. Much of their enthusiasm is pinned to the addition of top quarterbacks to lead their 2023 offenses. The Jets acquired future Hall of Fame member Aaron Rodgers in a deal with the Green Bay Packers and the Browns are now under the direction of Deshaun Watson, who was acquired last year from the Houston Texans but missed most of the 2022 campaign due to a suspension.

Tonight, neither Rodgers or Watson will see any action when the Jets and Browns kick off the National Football League’s preseason schedule in the Annual Hall of Fame Game. Rodgers hasn’t taken a preseason snap since 2018, and Watson will be on the sidelines tonight when Cleveland opens with Kellen Mond behind center.

A couple facts about preseason NFL action, first, there are edges available in the summer games that do not exist during the regular and postseason. Top organizations utilize these scrimmages to get ready for the real games that begin next month, while some struggling franchises often look to outscore their opponents in these meaningless results to “create a winning culture.”

Bad idea.

Winning cultures are established when teams prepare for the real battles to follow and use the preseason to best be ready for the regular season. It is worth noting that only two teams in history, the 2008 Detroit Lions and 2017 Cleveland Browns, lost all their regular season games during a 16 week schedule. Those two teams also were 4-0 in their preseason contests the same years they went winless in the regular season.

Second, and this needs to be delivered in a way that points out the dominance of the NFL in the betting world by stating that if I told you more money was wagered on a Major League Baseball spring training game than the Super Bowl you would think I was nuts. But, know this to be true, more money is wagered on an NFL preseason game than baseball’s World Series.

So, who are those bettors backing tonight?

Well, the books opened this game with the Cleveland Browns a slight favorite and the public figures the Jets starting the quarterback they made a first pick in the draft a few years ago with hopes he would be the franchise leader, Zach Wilson, is a solid choice over the Browns and Kellen Mond.

The public is looking for a preseason edge with strategies that are more geared to success in the regular season. It is like trying to open your garage door with the TV remote.

The best edges during the preseason are gained from coaching decisions. During the regular season, coaches will mask their game plans and in some cases starting quarterbacks to gain a competitive edge against their opponents. In their efforts to gain an edge over an opponent it is high risk to take what a coach says during the regular season as true. But, during the preseason, coaches are much more likely to tell the truth. If they are testing a new alignment or getting an extended look at marginal players before cutting their roster, you can take their word as gospel.

We can also see it in the line moves while dealing with the people that know the most at what influences NFL results and point spread decisions; the book makers. If a team considered among the worst suddenly becomes a favorite on the point spread against an opponent with a higher profile the weaker team consistently gets the point spread decision. The books are studying the coaching philosophies and the public is often paying for their lack of knowledge.

Tonight, the books opened the game with the Browns a slight favorite and now with the public backing the Jets the line has New York favored by two points. This line move can be read two ways. First, the opening line was more based on overall team strengths and the current line is pinned more to the quarterback decisions.

While we are in search of preseason edges we don’t find one tonight … but this is a game between two long suffering franchises that may both be on the cusp of a very successful 2023 campaign.