The New York Jets and Cleveland Browns are a pair of teams that have a lot higher hopes this season than their results in recent years … make that decades. Much of their enthusiasm is pinned to the addition of top quarterbacks to lead their 2023 offenses. The Jets acquired future Hall of Fame member Aaron Rodgers in a deal with the Green Bay Packers and the Browns are now under the direction of Deshaun Watson, who was acquired last year from the Houston Texans but missed most of the 2022 campaign due to a suspension.
Tonight, neither Rodgers or Watson will see any action when the Jets and Browns kick off the National Football League’s preseason schedule in the Annual Hall of Fame Game. Rodgers hasn’t taken a preseason snap since 2018, and Watson will be on the sidelines tonight when Cleveland opens with Kellen Mond behind center.
A couple facts about preseason NFL action, first, there are edges available in the summer games that do not exist during the regular and postseason. Top organizations utilize these scrimmages to get ready for the real games that begin next month, while some struggling franchises often look to outscore their opponents in these meaningless results to “create a winning culture.”
Bad idea.
Winning cultures are established when teams prepare for the real battles to follow and use the preseason to best be ready for the regular season. It is worth noting that only two teams in history, the 2008 Detroit Lions and 2017 Cleveland Browns, lost all their regular season games during a 16 week schedule. Those two teams also were 4-0 in their preseason contests the same years they went winless in the regular season.
Second, and this needs to be delivered in a way that points out the dominance of the NFL in the betting world by stating that if I told you more money was wagered on a Major League Baseball spring training game than the Super Bowl you would think I was nuts. But, know this to be true, more money is wagered on an NFL preseason game than baseball’s World Series.
So, who are those bettors backing tonight?
Well, the books opened this game with the Cleveland Browns a slight favorite and the public figures the Jets starting the quarterback they made a first pick in the draft a few years ago with hopes he would be the franchise leader, Zach Wilson, is a solid choice over the Browns and Kellen Mond.
The public is looking for a preseason edge with strategies that are more geared to success in the regular season. It is like trying to open your garage door with the TV remote.
The best edges during the preseason are gained from coaching decisions. During the regular season, coaches will mask their game plans and in some cases starting quarterbacks to gain a competitive edge against their opponents. In their efforts to gain an edge over an opponent it is high risk to take what a coach says during the regular season as true. But, during the preseason, coaches are much more likely to tell the truth. If they are testing a new alignment or getting an extended look at marginal players before cutting their roster, you can take their word as gospel.
We can also see it in the line moves while dealing with the people that know the most at what influences NFL results and point spread decisions; the book makers. If a team considered among the worst suddenly becomes a favorite on the point spread against an opponent with a higher profile the weaker team consistently gets the point spread decision. The books are studying the coaching philosophies and the public is often paying for their lack of knowledge.
Tonight, the books opened the game with the Browns a slight favorite and now with the public backing the Jets the line has New York favored by two points. This line move can be read two ways. First, the opening line was more based on overall team strengths and the current line is pinned more to the quarterback decisions.
While we are in search of preseason edges we don’t find one tonight … but this is a game between two long suffering franchises that may both be on the cusp of a very successful 2023 campaign.