Seven weeks ago, the Detroit Lions were underdogs at Soldier Field for their first meeting of the year against the Chicago Bears. The Lions were coming off an upset victory over the Green Bay Packers and met the Bears as a three point underdog on November 13. Chicago had lost their previous two games, against the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins, following an upset road Monday Night Football victory over the New England Patriots.
The Lions trailed the Bears for most of the game in Chicago, but then with a flurry of points in the final minutes pulled out a one point victory, 31-30. That marked an early conquest in a steep rise for the Lions fortunes. In un-like-Detroit fashion, the victory over the Bears was the second of seven victories the Lions would score over an eight week period. Their only loss during their run was a Thanksgiving Day contest against the talented Buffalo Bills, 28-25.
That first meeting seemed the crossroads for the Lions surge and the end the Bears had for any major success in the first year of Matt Eberflus tenure as their head coach. Chicago comes into play this week on an eight game losing streak and without a win since their upset triumph over the Patriots in October.
While the Bears have gone into hibernation, the Lions have roared to where they still have an mathematical chance at landing a Wild Card playoff berth with just two weeks left in the season. Those Detroit hopes were severely weakened last week when the Lions got run over in Carolina as the Panther rushed for a team record of 320 yards enroute to a 37-23 home team triumph.
With the Lions surging and the Bears struggling, one can understand why Detroit was installed as a 6½ point favorite for their contest on Sunday at Ford Field. What might seem less apparent to many football followers is why the line has gone down to six points in most locations, and even dipped a half point more at some of the sharpest books, while the bettors are backing Detroit in significant numbers.
How can this be?
Don’t the books know that the Bears are without a win for two months and the Lions are one of the hottest teams in the league?
Yep.
They know.
They also know that the Bears have nothing and everything to play for here. Chicago has been long eliminated from playoff hopes, so they have nothing to play for in that regard. But, they also have an opportunity to end any slim hopes Detroit has of landing a postseason berth. A victory by the Bears on Sunday and the Lions can start planning their draft.
It is an opportunity Chicago won’t miss, that is the chance to mess with their longtime division rivals and while not headed to the playoffs, at least affect them by eliminating the Lions.
Whether the line is six points or a half point more or less won’t matter in a game that our numbers indicate Chicago, behind Justin Fields, won’t need any of them with an anticipated Bears victory.
We may not need the points on the spread, but we’ll take them as insurance on a very sweet Bears point spread investment.
Qoxhi Picks: Chicago Bears (+6) over Detroit Lions