Ever walk into a room and feel like everyone in there knows something you don’t?
I feel like that tonight as I handicap the Monday Night Football contest between the Baltimore Ravens and New Orleans Saints who meet in a National Football League game to wrap up ninth week regular season action.
My preseason pick to win the Super Bowl was the Baltimore Ravens with an 18 to 1 payout, but they have looked like they deserved longer odds for much of this season. While they sit alone atop the AFC North standings, that is in great part attributable to the drop off of their division competition. The AFC North is home to the defending AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals, who won their fifth game in nine starts yesterday. The other two teams in this division, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, both have losing records.
Okay, so the Ravens five wins in eight decisions is good enough for first place, but does this team look like a squad that could emerge from the AFC Playoffs with a berth in Super Bowl LVII?
Not yet.
Their record includes only three point spread wins and a defense that has only once limited their opponent to less than 20 points since opening day. The offense, led by quarterback Lamar Jackson, has only twice scored more than 30 points and haven’t done so since a third week win over the New England Patriots.
What we have here is a talented and well-coached Ravens team underperforming.
So, when they meet the Saints tonight at the Superdome, is the right side of this wager New Orleans plus the points?
I’ve got my problems with the Saints too.
Under first year head coach Dennis Allen, New Orleans had allowed more points than any team in the league entering last week’s play. Then tonight’s home team shut out the Las Vegas Raiders while only once allowing them to cross midfield.
Are the Raiders that bad, or did the Saints once highly thought of defense finally find its groove?
The “smart money” is backing the Saints tonight, while the public likes the Ravens chances.
Does somebody know something I don’t, or is the big money simply backing a Monday Night Football home underdog?
Not sure.
But I do know this, if I’m looking for one of these teams to step up and move back into the race as a serious Super Bowl threat, my money is on the Ravens being that team.
But before I see more evidence of this prospect I can’t lay points on the road with the public while the wise guys are yelling it is the Saints.
Somebody seems to think they know more than me, but as it turns out, they are seeing two different outcomes for tonight’s game. If I had some evidence on my charts that enhanced the wise guy side of this game, I would be on the Saints. But I don’t, and to follow the public without stronger criterion supporting the Ravens is pure folly.
Which means this, tonight’s game is for viewing purposes only.