It is best to keep in mind what the books objective is … separate their clients from their money.
They are very good at it.
One of their most reliable methods is to set point spreads that make the wrong side of the wager look attractive. Take tonight’s game for example. How could one explain how a team on a five game winning streak can suddenly be a double-digit underdog? The Tennessee Titans, who opened their regular campaign with a pair of losses to the New York Giants and Buffalo Bills, bring a five game winning streak into Arrowhead Stadium tonight when they meet the Kansas City Chiefs.
Before we explain this game, let's go back 24 hours and seven days to see how this works with a result already posted. The number one team in the college rankings opened the tenth week of college play as an 11½ point underdog.
Mistake? How can this be?
The 11½ point underdog role was assigned to the number one ranked Tennessee Volunteers this week for their battle against the third ranked Georgia Bulldogs between the hedges. Most bettors, more than 60%, took the points.
Seemed logical.
Think the books knew something the general public didn’t?
With action on the Volunteers the line was shaved to 10 points before yesterday’s kickoff, and the final score had the books take the gains by virtue of a 27-13 victory for the home-standing Bulldogs.
Do you think the books may also know something about tonight’s game in Kansas City when they evaluated two teams with equal records, five wins and two losses, and made the team on the five game winning streak a double-digit underdog?
I do.
And, just like in yesterday’s college game between two winning teams the “too high” point spread is likely to get clipped.
Why?
I could tell you about that from a number of different angles, but let’s just make it short and sweet … the books know what they are doing.
I have long thought that it is much easier to win with the books than trying to beat them. The majority of bettors on this week’s Sunday night NFL game are trying to beat the books while taking their generous point spread. The public often bite at numbers like a fish goes for bait on the end of a hook.
Even while the bettors are on the Titans by nearly 60%, the books keep raising the line to make a wager on Tennessee easier and easier. It is one effective lure the books offer, but it is the wrong side of tonight's game.
Qoxhi Picks: Kansas City Chiefs (-13½) over Tennessee Titans