The New England Patriots staved off an early season exit from their AFC East race last week with a win over the high-flying New York Jets. The Big Apple’s team that wears green had won five of their first seven games and only trailed the Buffalo Bills by one game in the standings.

Ripe for a loss.

Today, the Jets host the Bills and are double-digit underdogs. Last week, they led the New England Patriots at halftime before Bill Belichick’s men shifted the momentum in the second half and exited MetLife Stadium with a five point win, 22-17.

If the Jets were due to lose last week, and they were, and it took the Patriots an extra effort to grind out a five point win, then this Patriots team may just not be that good. The prior week, they lost on their home field to the Chicago Bears, 33-14. Now they are five point favorites over a desperate Indianapolis Colts squad that comes in knowing they have to play their best to avoid getting blown out.

Perfect motivation.

The best picks are often the ones that people dismiss because a team looks so overmatched. What they miss in that instance, is that the players feel that way too. Just as you give one team no chance to win, the players are confronting the same opinion with some convincing evidence based on prior results.

Do you think the New England Patriots players are tossing and turning the night before the game in fear of what they have to confront on Sunday when the Colts come calling?

Nope.

They are thinking about how they are going to win because they just beat the Jets and the Colts are a mess.

They are a mess, and few things are more reliable to win than a team that perceives itself a mess and yet has a core that can succeed on any given Sunday.

Like this one.

The Patriots are in a campaign slated to be a down year based on the extraordinary accomplishment they scored last season when rookie quarterback Mac Jones led them to the playoffs. New England falls on the wrong side of the expectations versus talent chart. A team that scores quick success well above expectations will consistently have a down year the following season, particularly against the point spread.

In today’s game, the Patriots high expectations run smack into the Colts time of desperation. The team that has a healthy fear is the team that is going to win the game. In this one, that is Frank Reich’s squad.

Qoxhi Picks: Indianapolis Colts (+5) over New England Patriots