The Houston Texans have been a team in trouble ever since their prize quarterback got in legal jeopardy while angling for extras on the massage table. The team’s teeter-totter results revolve around Deshaun Watson, who was selected by the Texans in 2017 with the 12th overall pick in the National Football League draft.
In his rookie season, a productive start to his career was ended with a knee injury suffered in November. In his first three healthy seasons and years without legal troubles, Watson twice led the Texans to the playoffs while establishing himself as the NFL’s all-time leader in completion percentage and currently ranks second all-time in career passer rating. His 104.5 mark is second only to Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes.
Still, even while Watson was enjoying his best statistical season in 2020, he completed 33 touchdowns against only seven interceptions and had a passer rating of 112.4, the Texans record fell from division winner to four wins and a dozen losses. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars had a worst record in the AFC South Division. That season's record was pinned on Houston after the organization apparently forgot that no matter how good their quarterback was they also needed a defense to win.
Then legal issues threw shade on the talented quarterback who had led Clemson to a National Title over Alabama in his final college season. In his absence, the Texans have struggled. They suffered loss after loss following his midseason injury in 2017, winning only one of their final ten games after he was knocked out of action. They also earned only four wins last season without him on the field.
But, this story is not about Watson, but rather the Texans.
It has become easy for gamblers to bet against Houston when Watson is not part of their offensive attack. And, the bettors have done quite well employing that method.
This year, with Watson now a member of the Cleveland Browns, the Texans have relied on Davis Mills, a third round choice out of Stanford University in 2021. The public perception between Watson and Mills is a little like leaving your Ferrari in the garage and driving a Volkswagen bug.
Yet, while Mills doesn’t have the credentials of Watson, he is now leading a Houston team that plays the game on both sides of the ball. And while it may be a tough habit to give up, betting against Houston without Watson, we expect that change in plans will pay dividends this Sunday when Houston hosts one of their division rivals, the Tennessee Titans.
Last week, the Texans battled the Las Vegas Raiders in Sin City and were competitive for most of the games before surrendering a few late scores that first had them relinquish the lead and then make the final score less indicative of the actual game. The Raiders, looking to earn only their second win of the season while they were in position to win any of their six season opening games, triumphed over Houston by a 38-20 margin. As we said, the final score was not a true reflection of how close the contest was last week at Allegiant Stadium where the Texans carried a 20-17 lead into the fourth quarter.
While that didn’t do the Texans backers any good last week, it does feed Houston’s motivation this Sunday when they welcome the Titans to Texas.
The wise guys know it, that is why the point spread on this game has dropped while nearly 80% of the individual wagers are backing the road favorites this Sunday at NRG Stadium.
The wise guys know the right side of this point spread proposition and now, so do you.
Qoxhi Picks: Houston Texans (+2) over Tennessee Titans