If a father was playing basketball in the driveway with his 11 year old son, and he was a physically fit man in his early 30’s that towered over his son by 16 inches, you might expect him to win easily. If you were the father in that game, would you crush your son or give him some breaks to have it look more competitive?
Perhaps, if you had won ten games in a row without much undo effort, you would feel one way as opposed to playing a game after the youngster actually put on some moves and stole a win.
How does the father play in the game after the surprise loss?
Why do I ask?
Because you can substitute the father in the above scenario for the Buffalo Bills and have the overmatched kid be the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bills came into last season much the same way they came into their 2022 campaign. In both years, Buffalo had their previous season ended in the playoffs against the Kansas City Chiefs, and they entered their campaign carrying the load of high expectations.
Last year, they lost their opening game at home to the Steelers. This year, they opened their season with a one-sided victory over the Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams on the road. Only two other times in 16 games had the visitors beaten a defending champ in a Thursday night opener.
You get the feeling that this Bills team could be really good.
Two weeks ago, following a Monday Night shoutout victory over the Tennessee Titans, 41-10, Buffalo lost a nailbiter to their AFC East Division rivals, the Miami Dolphins. Last week, the Bills fell behind by double-digits early, and won the game late with a field goal, 23-20, against a talented Ravens squad on Baltimore’s home field.
On Sunday, the Bills get back in front of their home fans and go up against a Steelers squad that is looking to win in Buffalo for a second straight season.
Does that seem likely to you?
Not to me either.
I think the Bills could run the score up as much as they want against an overmatched Steelers squad coming to town following three straight losses since their season opening win over the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. The Steelers brought in Mitch Trubisky to work with their first round rookie draft choice, Kenny Pickett. Less than four games into this plan head coach Mike Tomlin saw little value in having his rookie watch Trubisky struggle and ahead of schedule called on Pickett to take over behind center in the second half of last week’s loss to the New York Jets.
What we have here is the near extremes of the league in terms of team direction. The Bills are ascending to a perch atop the league and the Steelers are stumbling to what likely will be Tomlin’s first losing season as the Steelers head coach. This week, Pickett will get his first NFL start in perhaps the toughest venue possible, against the Bills in Buffalo.
Which only leaves us with what the score will be when the Bills, like the father towering over his young son, look to gain retribution for last year’s upset loss at Highmark Stadium.
During the past 22 NFL seasons there have been 60 teams favored by 14 points and in those games the favorite is 52-8 straight up and 28-29-3 against the point spread. Of course we don’t care about those stats, our only concern is the Bills winning and covering this week.
Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (-14) over Pittsburgh Steelers