Here is something you don’t hear everyday, people from Miami headed to Cincinnati for better weather. While we keep the residents of Florida and the east coast ravaged by Hurricane Ian in our thoughts and prayers, the Miami players and some of their fans ventured North to Cincinnati for this Thursday night contest between their Dolphins and the home-standing Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals are the defending AFC Champions and come into this game with a single win against two losses. The Dolphins are an emerging team and are the only undefeated AFC team left after three weeks. If the Bengals win tonight, and the Philadelphia Eagles, who are the only NFC team without a loss, are upset on Sunday by the Jacksonville Jaguars, this will be the quickest season in NFL history for all teams to fall from the unbeaten ranks.
Two weeks ago things looked pretty average for the Dolphins. They defeated their longtime AFC East Division rivals, the New England Patriots, in their home opener and were trailing on the road against the talented Baltimore Ravens 35-14 entering the fourth quarter.
Then, magic.
The Dolphins exploded for 28 fourth quarter points as third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa rewrote some offensive records in leading his team to a 42-38 win over the shellshocked Ravens.
One might think that the Dolphins would have a lapse in preparation for their next game after such a dramatic comeback, but there was no time for them to let up given their next opponent was considered by many the best team in football, the Buffalo Bills. Already this season the Bills had knocked off the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams on their home field, only two other defending champions had lost on opening day in 16 tries since the NFL adopted the defending champions hosting the season opener on Thursday night.
The Bills next took on the team that had secured the top seed in the AFC Playoffs last season, the Tennessee Titans, and blew them out in second week Monday Night Football action, 41-10.
Then came the Dolphins, off their dramatic comeback victory against the Ravens, to hand the Bills their first loss of the season, 21-19. While many would have thought if only one team in the AFC survived the first three weeks without a loss it would have been the Bills, or maybe the Kansas City Chiefs or perhaps the Ravens. But no, it is the Dolphins who beat two of the best teams in the league before arriving in Cincinnati tonight undefeated.
On the Bengals side, we fully expected Cincinnati to have a rough campaign in defense of the AFC title. The Bengals are not yet used to winning, and they interrupted years of last place finishes with last season’s trip to Super Bowl LVI. When a team as inexperienced at winning as the Bengals have their first breakout campaign expectations usually surge ahead of actual talent and they take a beating both on the field and even more dramatically against the point spread.
The Bengals opened this season with a home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, then lost on the road as a touchdown favorite against the Dallas Cowboys. They got their first win of the season last week against the New York Jets, and now look to even their record against a surging Dolphins squad.
So, what do we have here?
A Bengals team that has to have a lot going their way to get a point spread win this season and a Dolphins team leaving a natural disaster in their home to try and extend their unbeaten streak to four games on the road.
Does this add up to a point spread play?
Nope.
Not a good spot for the better team, Miami, and a horrible point spread, 3½ points, to lay with a Bengals team that is not going to win too often this season.
What that leaves us with is a great matchup to open Week Four NFL action, but no discernable edge to recommend a wager on the outcome.