Joe Dimaggio’s 56 game hitting streak is the gold standard of a sports record never to be broken.

But another less known record is of the most interest to me. Kansas City Chiefs Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has a winning record in games his team has trailed by ten points or more. The Chiefs behind Mahomes have trailed in all four of their Super Bowl games by ten points or more, and Mahomes has guided the Andy Reid coached squad to three Vince Lombardi Trophy capturing victories.

Lifetime, Mahomes is 17-14 in games he was required to overcome a double-digit deficit.

Amazing, and a mark in a category that no other National Football League quarterback has ever accomplished: that is a winning record in games they trailed by double-digits.

There are a lot of ways to measure Mahomes’ greatness, and his perfect blend of competitiveness and skill is the reason he can tread where no quarterback ever has. Last season, Mahomes did a couple things seldom done by Super Bowl winning teams. In a game that the home team defending champion has dominated since its inception in 1994, home champions were 14 and 3 straight-up before the Chiefs lost to the Detroit Lions last September, 21-20.

The Chiefs became only the fourth defending champion to lose their home opener. Those same home teams are 9-6-3 against the point spread. When the Chiefs advanced to Super Bowl LVIII, they were looking to become only the second team in history to win a Super Bowl after suffering a loss at home on opening day.

Jon Gruden led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a win over the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII, 48-21. With that victory, the Buccaneers became the first team to win a Super Bowl after dropping their opening week game at home. The Bucs lost an overtime decision to the New Orleans Saints the first day of the 2002 season, before becoming the first team to win the Super Bowl after suffering a season opening home loss.

The Chiefs success also puts a bullseye on their chances to repeat with a third straight Super Bowl win. No team has ever won three in a row.

Then again, the Chiefs doing something no other team has ever done appears par for the course.

Perhaps, on a par with Dimaggio’s hitting streak.

The best thing is the right teams usually win.

The identifiable winners going in actually win at a pace around 86%, yet a big chunk off that success rate is lost on the point spread. Identifying winning teams is a good place to start, but finding the best wager based on current lines is a much more profitable discipline to master.

Games in which a particular team couldn’t possibly lose to their overmatched opponent is both a spot for a likely winner and a spot where motivational advantages could well outgun the pure talent discrepancy.

On any given day, usually Sunday, there is a game that ‘everyone’ agrees on for one side. That side loses nearly half the time straight-up and more than 70% of the time against the point spread.

On opening day this year, which team is agreed on by most to be headed for an easy win?

There are three games on the opening day schedule that appear lopsided in favor of the home team. And, statistically, good teams usually take advantage of their home field advantage on opening day. It is worth noting that only two of the 58 Super Bowl winners lost on opening day at home, that would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2002 and the Kansas City Chiefs last year. The Bucs ended 2002 with a romp over the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII after losing to the New Orleans Saints on their home field to start that season. Last year, the Kansas City Chiefs were upset by the Detroit Lions at Arrowhead to kickoff the 2023 season, and ended the year with an overtime win over the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.

This year, a pair of teams with high expectations and low Super Bowl odds open in games that they appear destined to win easily. The Buffalo Bills host the Arizona Cardinals on September 8 while the Cincinnati Bengals entertain the New England Patriots. While it looks like easy wins for the Bills and Bengals, they may also expect a comfortable triumph and could already be looking ahead to a more challenging second week matchup.

In second week action, the Bills play on Thursday night in Miami against their AFC East Division rival Dolphins. A prime time road game may steal some of the attention the Bills would be well served to focus on their opener against the Cardinals. The Bengals also have a more attractive second week matchup after their opener against the Patriots, they travel to Kansas City to meet the two-time defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs.

Still, the success of the best teams at home on opening day through caution in betting against either the Bills or Bengals … but certainly preclude the obvious play of laying points with them in these spots. Which takes us to the third team that has what appears to be a cakewalk in their season opening game; the New Orleans Saints open their 2024 campaign at Caesars Superdome against the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers were the worst team in football last year, by any measure, and they not only had a horrible season but didn’t even get the advantage of a high draft pick after having the worst record in football. They had already traded their 2024 first round draft selection to the Chicago Bears in 2023 for the first pick in the draft that season. The Panthers also shipped wide receiver D.J. Moore and two additional draft picks, second round selections in 2023 and 2025, to Chicago to secure Bryce Young with the first overall selection. That didn’t work out well either. Young had a miserable rookie season while the second player picked in the 2023 draft, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, had a season considered by many the best ever for a rookie signal caller and led the Houston Texans to the 2023 playoffs.

Yeah, it was a bad year for the Panthers both in the front office and on the field. Now they open the 2024 season with expectations in the tank. And they open the season on the road against a Saints team that narrowly missed a playoff spot last season.

Easy for the Saints … right?

Might New Orleans already be distracted by the more compelling second week contest they will have when they meet the Cowboys in Dallas?

The formula that identifies an “easy” win for one team with a more enticing matchup on their schedule the next week, is clearly in play for the Panthers visit to New Orleans. Sometimes, the more difficult task is actually wagering on a game that meets wanted criteria simply because it looks like an uphill battle.

But, that is exactly why motivation works like it does … if it hurts before the game to make the wager, there is a real good chance it’s going to feel a lot better when collecting on the wager after the game.

Qoxhi Picks: Carolina Panthers (+5) over New Orleans Saints

There is only one road favorite on this season’s National Football League opening day schedule. The Houston Texans are currently favored by two points for their contest in Indianapolis against the Colts. There were two other road favorites on the opening lines, the Minnesota Vikings (-1½) over the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys (-1½) over the Cleveland Browns. Yet, early action on those contests now has the Vikings and Giants matchup posted as a pick 'em and the Browns a one-point favorite over the Cowboys.

Is betting on home teams on opening day warranted?

Over the past 20 NFL seasons home favorites are 140-77 straight-up, a robust 65% winning mark. Yet, with the smart people in charge of setting the lines on these games, that winning 65% margin is reduced to 56% losers. The point spread record for home favorites in those same 217 games is 96-111-10 against the number.

In a typical season, 16% of straight up winners lose against the point spread. But, on opening day, winning teams that lose the wager balloons to 21%.

Why?

Because early season betting by the public is mostly tied to how teams did last season. In fact, the only road favorite this season, the Texans, had a breakout campaign last year when they went for the cellar to the playoffs. Houston’s success was keyed by two newcomers to the organization; first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and sensational rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.

Ryans came from a highly successful stint as defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers, Stroud the second overall pick in the 2023 draft out of Ohio State. On the heels of recent dismal seasons the Texans were able to collect a lot of blue chip talent in the draft, and the addition of Ryans and Stroud sent the team soaring.

Following a three win last place finish in 2022, the Texans rode to the top of the AFC South Division last year and opened the post season with a victory over the Cleveland Browns. The breakout season ended with a loss in Baltimore to the talented Ravens, but the winning ways enjoyed last season sends the Texans into the 2024 campaign with high expectations.

Is that a problem?

Yes.

The success the Texans enjoyed last year was not triggered by high expectations, but rather a concern that a first-year head coach and rookie quarterback was a formula for another disappointing campaign. Instead, the Texans turned that concern into a motivational boost that had them exceed all preseason expectations.

Now, on the heels of that success, the Texans prepare for the 2024 season with confidence that another winning campaign is coming. But, when expectations exceed actual talent and winning tradition, problems almost always ensue. History shows that when a team enjoys a breakout campaign following years of dismal finishes in their division race, a decline in results in their first year after success is common.

For example, when the San Francisco 49ers won their first Super Bowl behind Joe Montana to complete the 1981 season, they missed an expanded playoff field the following season and ended 1982 with more losses than wins. Same goes for the New England Patriots, who surprised the football world in 2001 when Tom Brady replaced an injured Drew Bledsoe early in the season and ended the year with a stunning victory over the double-digit favored St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI. The next year, the Patriots missed the playoffs with a nine win campaign.

If Montana and Brady can fall prey to the year after a breakout campaign, what chances do you give Stroud?

Houston, you’ve got a problem.

They don’t know it yet, but reality will begin to creep into their team after they get upset in a most likely spot; off a breakthrough campaign and as an opening day road favorite against a division opponent.

Qoxhi Picks: Indianapolis Colts (+2) over Houston Texans