The National Football League will stage eight games today and then wrap their preseason schedule tomorrow with a pair of Sunday contests.
One of the games on today’s schedule that intrigues us enough to offer a recommendation for a preseason wager involves the Baltimore Ravens and the Washington Commanders. So, before I write anything else, I suspect if you’ve been paying attention you might think we are backing John Harbaugh’s team as they look to win their 23rd consecutive preseason game.
In my heart, I’m with you.
With my wallet, I’m not.
Last night, we saw the Buffalo Bills have their ten game preseason win streak both straight-up and against the point spread snapped by the highly suspect Carolina Panthers. Turns out, the game wasn’t close, the Panthers shutout the team favored to win Super Bowl LVII, 21-0. That result was predicated not on history, but because of the unique factors that dictated last night’s result.
The coaches had honestly reported their game plans, and it was obvious that Buffalo’s Sean McDermott was satisfied with where his team was heading into the regular season and wanted to get home from Carolina without suffering any injuries. Carolina’s Matt Rhule was looking to get his newly named starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield, some extra playing time and had two capable backups behind him for a solid quarterback rotation.
Those were the factors that governed the Bills having their win streak snapped.
Okay, what is going on in Baltimore today?
While the Bills are favored to win the Super Bowl next February in Arizona, I think the better choice when considering the odds of accomplishing that feat belong to the Ravens. The Bills are currently posted at 5 to 1 to win it all, the Ravens bring back more than triple the profit if they hit while currently carrying 18 to 1 Super Bowl odds.
For a wager that carries with it all the huddles any team needs to overcome during a 17 game regular season and postseason challenge, the longer odds are more attractive. Injuries can change the prospect of a team in an instant. If Bills Quarterback Josh Allen is knocked out for the season on opening day with an injury, the Bills prospects take a severe hit. The team that wins Super Bowl LVII will not only be the best, it will also in all likelihood be a squad that avoided serious injuries during the rigorous campaign.
Last season, it was injuries that derailed the Ravens chances of advancing to the postseason. Only two teams in the league had injuries that resulted in more missed games by starters than Harbaugh’s squad. You can be sure that is on the coaches’ mind today as he enters this final tuneup for the games that count two weeks down the road.
By the same token, Washington Head Coach Ron Rivera will be protecting many of the men he expects to key success this year in the NFC East Division race. Carson Wentz, who Washington acquired this offseason to take over as starting quarterback, will probably see no more than a single series of action, while rookie Sam Howell will get his big chance with extended playing time behind center.
Yep, it is a final preseason game where coaches on both sides are more concerned about getting in and out without losing players and a final look at athletes trying to make their 53 man roster. The final score is not as important to the teams as avoiding injuries, and while the Ravens are looking for a record 23rd consecutive summer win, a streak that includes a 20-1-1 point spread mark, the Commanders are attracting wise guy money against public play.
Wise guys don’t always win; but you wouldn’t want the record against them.
Qoxhi Picks: Washington Commanders (+4½) over Baltimore Ravens