I have a friend in Boston who is one of the brightest people in the sports wagering field. He never bets on a New England Patriots game. He doesn’t take them when they are obvious, or against them when he can clearly see they are in a tough spot.
For too long, a decade ago and more, this bright guy saw the spots where the Patriots would fail, and his wager against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady most often lost.
Then, it seemed to him, that when he backed his “home” team, they struggled and sometimes lost the games and always seemed to lose the point spread.
So, he swore off the Pats, and considers himself a better man for it.
Knowing one’s limitations is as important as employing strengths.
I’m thinking about swearing off the Green Bay Packers. I’ve bet against them three times this year when they were in horrible spots, and only once did that work out in my favor. That was three weeks ago when the Top Pick Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay. Minnesota won, but it was a lot tougher than I thought it was going to be … the Vikings kicking the game clinching field goal on the last play of the contest.
Tonight, if I don’t swear off my attempts to beat the Packers, I’m on the Chicago Bears getting nearly two touchdowns on the point spread. The last time these two teams played, at Soldier Field eight weeks ago, the game was competitive with Aaron Rodgers and company winning by ten points while giving 5½ on the line.
Tonight, the Packers are favored by 11½ points, a line that opened with Green Bay favored by 13. The number has been shaved while more than 60% of the public bets are coming in on the home team at Lambeau Field.
Why is the line coming down when the bettors are on the favorite?
Public numbers reflect how many people are betting on a particular team, while line movements are generated by the amount of money on one side or the other. In this case, the money on this game is taking the points with the Bears. They jumped in when they got 13 on the spread; individuals getting in on the action tonight will only get 11½ points.
How much of a factor is that?
Seven percent.
Seven percent of the time when an opening line moves it switches the point spread winner. That factor always favors the team with the better line, like the Packers tonight.
Yet, I think the line movement is smart money that is going to win this game. So I’m willing to take the overmatched Bears on the road tonight against the Packers. Problem is, I don’t do well with the Packers.