Sometimes what you want and what you need doesn’t line up.
Like tonight.
Early in the week, I did a column taking the Chiefs and laying the points in their game tonight against the Denver Broncos. This late in the season, I just figure that the better team, Kansas City, is not going to allow the Broncos to catch them in the AFC West standings.
I also saw that for the first time in two years the public was betting against the Chiefs. This is a loyal wagering group that backed Kansas City while they won only four of their previous 21 games against the point spread. The public even bet on the Chiefs over the Los Angeles Chargers last December in a meaningless last day of the regular season game when the Chiefs announced they were resting their starters.
The public lined up on the Chiefs giving the points on every game this year, even when they started this season only 2-7 against the point spread. Then, the public got a couple wins with the Chiefs, three weeks ago when Kansas City throttled the Las Vegas Raiders on the road, 41-14, and again two weeks ago when the Chiefs won by ten giving 2½ points against the Dallas Cowboys.
But now, after those two victories and point spread covers, the public and wise guys are all over the Broncos plus the more than a touchdown point spread tonight.
I’m not.
Although, I am hesitant to buck people I respect in this industry without empirical evidence to back my lean to the Chiefs in this game that has been shifted from an early contest to the Sunday Night Football slot.
It is the first time this year NBC has exercised their flex option to move off one game and onto another. In this case, the originally scheduled contest between the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks was moved to an afternoon start and the Chiefs and Broncos were given the prime time position.
I know this. A lot of people are going to wager on this game whether I offer a side or not … it is the nature of gamblers and prime time games.
So, while I don’t have the collateral material to support my lean to the Chiefs, and am in opposition to both the public and wise guys, I can’t offer a money rated play on this matchup.
But, if you are only following my advice, I like the Chiefs tonight.