Most bright handicappers have avoided the Kansas City Chiefs giving points over the past couple seasons. Yet, for more than two years the public wagering has piled on Andy Reid’s team like they were the only wager available. In fact, it has been more than two years since the public has backed a Kansas City opponent even while the Chiefs went through a streak in which they lost 17 of 20 point spread decisions beginning a year ago November and ending three weeks ago when the Chiefs throttled the Las Vegas Raiders on the road, 41-14.
The public even bet on the Chiefs last December when they rested their starters in a meaningless last day of the season contest against the Los Angeles Chargers. That game was won by the Chargers to extend the Chiefs non-winning point spread record to eight games.
Kansas City was the public choice every week last year including their Super Bowl against Tom Brady and Company and all their games this season … until now.
Why?
Haven’t a clue.
The Chiefs have finally gotten back on a winning track both straight up and against the point spread in recent weeks. After narrow victories and point spread losses against the New York Giants and Green Bay Packers, and wins and covers against the Raiders and Dallas Cowboys, the Chiefs went into their bye week leading the AFC West Division. Only three weeks ago they were in the cellar in the AFC West Division.
What was more important than simply narrow wins over a couple opponents was that their success against the Giants and Packers was not keyed by their offense, but rather a suddenly stout defense. The only game Kansas City didn’t allow at least 30 points over the first five games of the season was an opening day win over the Cleveland Browns, a game they allowed 29 points while scoring 33.
That has been the formula for the defending AFC Conference Champions through much of their three plus successful years with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. That is, simply outscore your opponents.
But, with the offense less productive than it had been in past seasons, the burden for victories shifted more to improved defensive play … and this squad delivered.
In their past four games the Chiefs have not allowed more than 17 points and now, following their bye, the potent offense has had time to heal from a number of knicks and bruises that have hampered their production.
What does that leave us with on Sunday night?
A Chiefs team at home needing a win to maintain their one game advantage over the rest of the AFC West. Seems like a good spot for them to succeed and extend their current two game point spread winning streak.
The public doesn’t think so.
They like the Denver Broncos this week.
Why?
Perhaps because the Broncos won last week. They beat the Chargers at home as an underdog while the public, you guessed it, bet against them.
This is a Denver team good enough to win in the right spot, like last Sunday, and bad enough to get blown out on their home field in tough motivational spots by the likes of the Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles. They also, after opening the 2021 season with three straight wins over three weaklings, the Giants, Jaguars and Jets, lost four in a row.
This is not a good spot for Denver, and when the public finally turns their back on the Chiefs you know what is going to happen.
Qoxhi Picks: Kansas City Chiefs (-9) over Denver Broncos