“It was so easy to pick games back then,” I heard from a football and betting fan this week. His comments went on to point out how home team underdogs used to be such a good bet and asked if I remembered when Monday Night Football home teams getting points always won?
Truth is, when those two fundamentals were paying off, it wasn’t so easy for the majority to pick those teams. While a home team underdog seemed an automatic in the early days of Monday Night Football, most people were betting on the road favorites. Two things happen when a successful wagering scheme becomes common knowledge; the public jumps on that train and the books run it off the tracks with point spreads that shift the advantage.
When I was first developing Qoxhi Picks in the 1970’s, and after I opened the service in 1981, home team underdogs were winning at a 56% clip. In the last 25 years, a slightly higher percentage of teams getting points at home won their games straight-up , 36% to 34%, but their record against the point spread was reduced to 51%. If all wagers are equal with a 10% vig the bettor needs to win 52.37% of their bets to break even.
What does this tell us?
The guys in charge of this game, the ones setting the point spreads and giving us an opportunity to wager on either side, pull obvious advantages away like Lucy holding for a Charlie Brown kick.
Our advantage is that the book makers need to consider both the matchup and public opinion. Which means this, when a team like the Kansas City Chiefs becomes a household name for excellence, they won 15 of 17 point spread decisions from the midpoint of the 2019 season through their Super Bowl triumph and for the first seven weeks of the 2020 season, they are going to pile points on that team until they are no longer the percentage side of the wager.
In the Chiefs case, the public has been slow to react to the Chiefs carrying points like a horse hindered by a 200 pound jockey. In most weeks, the public continues to back Pactrick Mahomes, even bet on him over Tom Brady in the Super Bowl, and had all their profits erased from the previous results while compiling a 1-9-1 point spread record over the final 11 games last year and this season Kansas City is 2-5 against the number.
The books pull the rug out from both obvious wagering situations and teams that have prolonged success while manipulating the line to lure bettors to the wrong side of the propositions. But, what they can’t interrupt is the next team that steps into the role the Chiefs played when they were beginning their ascent and the books couldn’t make the line high enough to derail their success.
You don’t have an opportunity to wager on the 2019 Chiefs any more, their winning streak is over, but what team is currently on a similar path in 2021?
The Arizona Cardinals.
I’m not sure Kyler Murray and company are going to win the Super Bowl this year, but in the NFC the only teams that seem to have a legitimate case to stop them are the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. From the AFC, their probable opponent in Super Bowl LVI is the Buffalo Bills.
These are the two teams that will continue to win this year and probably pay dividends for their backers even as the books look to halt their winning streaks with bloated lines. The books will get it back, gamblers are always generous that way, when they continue to wager on these teams after their winning runs are over. Just like they continue to wager on a Chiefs team that has lost all but three point spread decisions over the past calendar year.
By the way, the person who was bemoaning how it is not as easy to win now against the point spread as it used to be, had some additional advice on tonight’s game.
“I wouldn’t bet against Rodgers getting six points,” he cautioned.
The Green Bay Packers meet the Cardinals tonight in Arizona and the current spread is offering Aaron Rodgers and company 6 points. That’s a big number for a Packers team that comes into action on a six game winning streak both straight-up and against the point spread.
Of course the books are setting a number to lure bettors to the wrong side of the proposition, it’s just what they do.
Qoxhi Picks: Arizona Cardinals (-6) over Green Bay Packers