The Philadelphia Eagles host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers tonight to open the sixth week of play in the National Football League. Tom Brady and the defending champions are favored by a touchdown and most individuals taking a side on this game are backing the Super Bowl Champions. Current numbers show a 68% preference on the Buccaneers laying the points.
My opinion is that the 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad is very unlikely to repeat their Super Bowl Championship. Few teams do. The reason I think that there is less of a chance with this particular Super Bowl defending champion is how they threaded the needle last season to win their title. In the NFC Playoffs, they caught the New Orleans Saints at a perfect time, soon-to-retire quarterback Drew Brees giving his all but in a wounded state ending his career with a thud against Brady.
The next Sunday, in the NFC Championship Game, Tampa Bay parlayed a crucial touchdown drive at the end of the first half with a mind numbing decision by the Packers head coach in the waning minutes of the game. Then came Kansas City in the Super Bowl, and not only are the Chiefs favored after only one point spread cover in their previous ten games, but the coach’s son is involved in a tragic accident in the week leading up to the game.
Suffice it to say, Tampa Bay got their title with some fortuitous matchups.
This line of thinking is what had me conclude that the Miami Dolphins could stay with Brady and company last week, and that resulted in a one-sided Tampa Bay victory, 45-17. Does that lopsided win lead to another, or is a more competitive game likely?
Covering a point spread requires both the talent to get it done and the motivational factors that enhance that talent to perform at its highest level. The Buccaneers have talent, but it appeared to me that the tossing of the Super Bowl Trophy and the endearing stumble off the parade boat last February marked the end of the Buccaneers run. Still, Brady is Brady, and the Buccaneers defense has refused to surrender rushing yards while their stop unit works to compensate for the injury loss of three defensive backs.
From a purely physical side, this looks like a tough one for the Eagles to survive. But from a motivational perspective, it is Philadelphia that has their minds right based on previous results and current division standings.
The Eagles are chasing the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East, coming into play tonight two games back. The Buccaneers four wins in five decisions has them atop the NFC South by a game over the Carolina Panthers. That situation will naturally give the team needing a win in their division an edge, and when that factor is coupled with a home underdog role the advantage shifts more towards the Eagles with the points tonight.
While the Buccaneers are 4-1 straight-up in 2021, their point spread record is 2-3. Defending Super Bowl teams routinely carry point spreads higher than their talent dictates. In their opening game, the Thursday night contest against the Dallas Cowboys, Brady engineered a last minute drive to set up a winning field goal. The 9½ point underdog Cowboys easily cashing the wager.
Since that game, we have recognized that the Dallas Cowboys have bounced off their horrible 2020 campaign and developed into a real good football team. The Buccaneers win on opening night was a testament to Tampa Bay’s talent level.
But, for the Buccaneers to win and cover this point spread tonight, would require them being among the best teams ever. This is too tough of a spot for just a good team to overcome, and we’ll know just how special the Buccaneers are after this game.
If they win on the road, giving a touchdown on the spread following a 45-17 triumph while alone in first place in their division race, they are in the top 5% of all teams ever.
I like the 95% side of that proposition, and expect to win 100% tonight.
Qoxhi Picks: Philadelphia Eagles (+6½) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers