Over the past ten regular season games, nine last year and the first one this season, what National Football League team has the worst point spread record in the National Football League?
I’ll give you four teams to choose from:
Kansas City Chiefs
New York Giants
The team with the worst point spread record over the past ten regular season games is, wait for it, the Kansas City Chiefs. They only achieved one push on the line in their final eight regular season games in 2020 after blowing out the New York Jets on November 1 by a 35-9 score. Mind you, the Chiefs only lost one of those games straight-up, and that was a meaningless last day of the regular season contest against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Last week, at home, they staged a furious fourth quarter comeback to down the Cleveland Browns by four points, 33-29, while giving five or more points on the spread. This week, the Chiefs travel to Baltimore to meet a Ravens team that was upset on the road last Monday Night in Las Vegas. After building a 14-0 lead against the Raiders, the Ravens suffered two critical lost fumbles that led to a 33-27 overtime loss.
The defeat snapped the Ravens four game opening weekend winning streak in which they had outscored their opponents by a combined 177 to 26. Ravens Head Coach John Harbaugh has a history of having his teams ready early in a season, which includes 20 straight preseason wins. Now, off that stinging defeat in a game they were favored on the road on Monday night they return home as an underdog against a Chiefs team that has been overrated based on the point spread for a long stretch.
So, what do we have here?
We have a Chiefs team laying points on the road off a narrow home win with a recent history of not covering bloated lines.
We have a Ravens team with a history of starting seasons strong, coming off a loss and getting points on their home field for the first time since 2019. That season, twice the Ravens were home underdogs, they got three points against the New England Patriots and two points against the Pittsburgh Steelers at M&T Bank Stadium and won both games by double-digits, 37-20 and 28-10 respectively.
With so many factors seemingly pointing to a Ravens win this week, are the books laying a trap with Baltimore getting points on the line?
They are taking advantage of public perception.
The opening line on this game had Kansas CIty favored by 2½ points, but with more than 80% of all the action on this game backing the road favorites the line has been moved up twice. First, to three points on Monday and then by Tuesday night it was up to 3½ points.
I’m not waiting to see if the line goes higher, the field goal with a hook on the spread is enough for me to recommend stepping in on the Ravens right now.
Qoxhi Picks: Baltimore Ravens (+3½) over Kansas City Chiefs