What AFC team in the National Football League has the longest current losing streak against the point spread?
Now, if I would have asked what NFC team has the longest active losing streak, it would have been the Arizona Cardinals, who have dropped five straight games against the number. But in the AFC, it is the Los Angeles Chargers, who have been beaten by the point spread six times in a row and lost five of those games straight-up.
Who has the second longest losing streak against the point spread in the AFC?
The Kansas City Chiefs.
Know what those three point spread challenged teams have in common? The public consistently backs them with their money.
They are doing it again this week with two road teams, as the money is coming in on the Cardinals over the New York Giants and Chiefs over the Miami Dolphins. The public has finally turned on the Chargers, but it took a 45-0 home whipping last Sunday by the New England Patriots to pry the public off backing the losing team out of Los Angeles.
Wait, like a truck signaling it is backing up with beep, beep, beep, I suspect you might want me to reiterate and show the evidence that the Chiefs are really riding a four game losing streak against the spread.
I’ll do more than that.
I will both review quickly their four losses to the point spread in recent weeks, and tell you how that can pay dividends this week when Kansas City visits Miami to meet a Dolphins team on a trajectory that our government was hoping would mirror our sagging economy.
First of all, while the Chiefs have lost four straight against the spread while the public continues to back them like they are the only choice on the board, they are winning games straight-up. With the Pittsburgh Steelers loss on Monday to the Washington Redskins, the Chiefs now have an enhanced opportunity of gaining the only postseason bye in their conference. This year, the revised Covid-19 prompted playoff format, has seven teams from each conference earning a postseason date with only one team earning a bye.
The Steelers and Chiefs do not meet in the regular season this year, so if they both end the campaign with identical records a tiebreaker based on factors we would need a slide rule to calculate now will be employed. Suffice it to say, the Steelers still have a slight edge to get that bye based on their loss coming outside the conference while Kansas City’s defeat was against AFC West Division rival Las Vegas.
But, back to the matter at hand, the Chiefs point spread losing record.
Historically, when a team is not covering the point spread but winning games straight-up the trend is that they will lose a game on the scoreboard before they have a lopsided victory. In their last four games, the Chiefs have been favored by ten points over the Carolina Panthers, and won by two. They came out of their bye week as an eight point road favorite over the Raiders, and won by four. They were 3½ point favorites against Tampa Bay in Florida and beat the Buccaneers by three. Last Sunday night, at home, they were favored by 13 points over the Denver Broncos and won the game by six.
This week, they are favored by seven points in Miami.
Now, the Dolphins are playing well enough to get the Chiefs attention, something that may have been lacking in last Sunday’s home win over the Broncos. But, the Chiefs recent problems with covering a point spread is not a factor that the Dolphins are relying on to improve their chances of beating the defending Super Bowl Champions.
The Dolphins lost three of their first four games this season, and only one game since. During that stretch Miami has also beaten the point spread in every game but one, a 7-1 mark both straight-up and against the number since early October.
Is this a likely spot for the Dolphins to stumble?
No.
This is a likely spot for them to hand the Chiefs their second loss of the season … and even more certain, a fifth straight point spread defeat.
Qoxhi Picks: Miami Dolphins (+7) over Kansas City Chiefs