The Green Bay Packers meet the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
I would wager that if you asked ten football fans on the street who would be favored in this game, eight of them would guess the Packers. This is one of those games that Sunday night on the sports reports the announcers will say the Colts upset the Packers today at Lucas Oil Stadium.
The were, and are, favored on the point spread.
How can a team with a worse record and worse public perception be favored?
The Packers come to town with one of the most explosive offenses in the league triggered by Aaron Rodgers, who is both a shoe-in for a first ballot entrance into the Hall of Fame and national recognition that places him among the current best in the league. Public bettors are attracted to high powered offenses like a moth to a light bulb at night.
Okay, with the Packers owning a great offense and a better record this year than the Colts, the question remains, why is Indianapolis favored in this one?
Because of an old fashioned way NFL teams find a way to win, with the better defense. The Colts counter the Packers well regarded offense with a defense that has allowed fewer points than every NFL team but three, and 47 less than the Packers. The Colts offense is also no slouch, having scored only 35 fewer points than the prolific Packers.
For those of you keeping score at home, that gives the Colts an edge on points for and points against of 12 points, and they gain that edge on the more important side of the ball, defense.
Who do the books want you wagering on in this contest?
Well, they opened this game with the Colts at the current line, 1½ points, and even while more than 60% of the wagers are on the visiting Packers, the line remains Indianapolis favored by the same number the game opened. If the books were afraid of Packers money they would have moved this line down, maybe even edged the favorite role over to the Green Bay side. But they haven’t, why?
Because they are just fine with being out on this game with the Colts, that is having more money riding on the Packers chances. One of the best ways to maximize profits is to make sure you are not giving the books what they want, and what they want here is more Green Bay money.
Don’t give it to ‘em
I can already hear Sunday night’s sports report, “The Colts upset the Packers today ….”
Now, you know they didn’t, and it sure is nice to collect on a favorite that most people regard as an underdog.
Qoxhi Picks: Indianapolis Colts (-1½) over Green Bay Packers