The designation of a big game in the National Football League is often up to the beholder. A broadcast network would want you to think that the game scheduled to be televised that week is the can’t miss game of the week. Fans will identify when their team is in a particularly intriguing contest against a hated rival as a big game. I will identify a big game not so much for the matchup, but for the edge one team has over an opponent.
Then, there are those occasional matchups that are a big game by almost any measurement. We have one of those this Sunday when the Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins.
These two teams have been battling each other since the 1960’s. There have been times when the Dolphins were a powerhouse and the Bills a doormat. There have been times when the Bills were the best team in the American Football Conference and the Dolphins were struggling.
In the past couple seasons, the Bills have been an elite NFL team and the Dolphins have been steadily improving. Buffalo has won the AFC East Division title the past three years and the Dolphins met them in the playoffs last January. The Bills won that game, but as double-digit underdogs the Dolphins put up a valiant effort on a cold Buffalo afternoon while being edged on the scoreboard, 34-31.
On Sunday, the Dolphins will look to avenge that season ending defeat and move two games ahead of Buffalo in their division standings. The Dolphins are perfect on the season, not only with three wins in three starts, but with a team that is scoring points at an all-time record pace. Last week, while pinning the Denver Broncos with the most lopsided loss in their history, the Dolphins became the first NFL team since 1966 to score 70 points. Miami’s 50 point win last week was by a final count of 70-20.
So, how do teams do after scoring 70 or more points?
With only two other teams accomplishing that many points in league history, the returns are rather slim to make any conclusion with substantial evidence. But, we do know this, teams that have offensive explosions one week, 50 or more points, do often have problems finding the same level of intensity for their following game.
Last Sunday, the Dolphins became the 50th team since 2010 to score 50 or more points. Of the prior 49, a little more than two-thirds of them won their next game, 33-16, but covered the spread less than half the time, 22-24-2.
So, how will the Dolphins do this week?
Do you want to buck a team that has an offense seemingly scoring points during the pregame National Anthem?
Then there is the Bills side of this equation. If Buffalo hadn’t coughed up the second half and lost to the New York Jets in opening week play, this would be an easier pick on the Dolphins. That is because both these AFC powerhouses would be coming into this contest with equal records. But, the Bills opening loss has them hosting the Dolphins while Miami has a one game advantage in the standings.
Quality division opponents have problems pulling two games ahead of their competition when first place is at stake. The motivation is clearly with the team needing a win to catch their opponent over the team looking to extend their division lead.
Advantage Buffalo.
The Dolphins get the advantage of playing in Buffalo early in the season so as not to confront any severe weather conditions. They also have the motivation of looking to avenge last year’s playoff loss at Highmark Stadium.
Advantage Miami.
The Dolphins are underdogs in Buffalo, and of the prior 49 teams that scored 50 or more points only nine were underdogs in their next game. How do you think they did? The spread never played a role in those nine games and the underdog scored four wins and five losses. Nothing there to lean on for a discernible edge in this high profile meeting in Buffalo.
What we end up with, at least early in the week, is that the Dolphins are playing at the highest level in the league, and the Bills are motivated to catch them in their division standings. Yeah, it is a big game, but not the way we define a big game … one that has a wagering edge pitched to one side.