The Washington Commanders and Baltimore Ravens close out second week preseason action tonight with a National Football League matchup scheduled to start at 5:00 p.m. Pacific Time. The homesteading Commanders will be looking to snap the longest preseason win streak in NFL history. The Ravens haven’t lost a summer game since 2015 and carry a 24 game winning streak into this contest.
So, how many points does Washington get?
The line opened with Ron Rivera’s team a 3½ point underdog, but that line was quickly bet down to one point and has ticked up today to where Baltimore is a 1½ point favorite. Does that mean everybody is betting on Washington to end the Ravens run?
A two point shift would seem to indicate heavy action on the home team, but in fact, this is one of those games the books like the most with 50% of the public action on each side.
If that is true, then why is the line shifting away from the team with the winning streak?
Point spread shifts by the books are not adjusted based on the number of wagers on one side or the other, but by how much money is backing one side over the other. So, while the public is split on this game we can see that the books are getting a lot more money on the home team underdog than the visitors in this contest.
So, do we follow a tried and true method of just following the wise guy action and take the Commanders with the shaved line?
Not by my numbers.
Last week, the Ravens were favored over the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles in Baltimore, and the public backed their chances with nearly 80% of the action. The Ravens extended their winning streak but didn’t cover the bloated point spread, which closed with the Eagles getting six points in a game they lost by one point, 20-19.
Tonight, wise guys or not, getting a point or point and a half is just not enough of an incentive to expect the Ravens to end their preseason winning streak or at least not win by more than one point.
Do I want the Ravens in this spot?
No.
Am I with the wise guys tonight?
No.
Which makes from my desk tonight’s game a no-no.