NFL 2024 Season - PS2
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Articles published multiple times per week, offering insights and picks on upcoming games.
 
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Divisional Playoffs
Challenge Accepted
Wild Card Weekend
Early Celebration
QB matchup
Starting and Ending Spots
Wild Card Trend
What to Like
Rookie Quarterbacks
Broken Fever
That's That
Week 18
Checking the Boxes
Needs and Wants
Four and Out
One or the Other
Point Spread Clouds
Fix It
Hollow Revenge
To Win or Not to Win
Week 17
All Knowing
Complicated Made Simple
Advanced Calculus
Glow Dimmed
Brink of Elimination
Game of Survival
Pleading for the Fifth
Need over Nothing
Christmas Grinch
Week 16
Numbers, Numbers, Numbers
Vintage 2018
Penix Debut
Dog Day
Playoff Position
Rest of the Story
Different Sundays
Run Some Tests
Without and With
Week 15
Two Tonight
Playoff Chances
Wild Card Challenge
Best of the Best
Next
Dire Straits
And It's Good
Bloated Lines
Week 14
Running up the Score
Challenge Me
Finding Reasons to Win
Crab Feed
Week Off
Good Enough
Buyers Regret
Pulled the Rug
Week 13
Mile High Hopes
Top and Bottom
Fourth Time the Charm
Bounce Back
Engage Spark
Line Up
Out in the Cold
Thanksgiving Visitors
Good Enough
Motivation on Steroids
Week 12
Second Best
Heavyweight Bout
QB's Ins and Outs
Everybody In
Too Easy
Walk the Plank
Hot to Trot
Try, Try, Try, Try, Try Again
Week 11
Mouse Trap
Must Game
Malfunction
Easy Does It
Old Foes
Falcons Fly into Mile High
Matter of Time
Improv
To the Brink
Week 10
Odd Man Out
Lions come Calling
Rookie versus Veteran
Call to Action
Full Reverse
When 8-0 is 4-4
Game of Contradictions
NFC West Bunch
Early Boarding
Week 9
Not Enough, Too Much
Real or Imposters
Groin Shot
Best Show
Saddle Up
Dull Edges
Telling Actions
Annihilation Formula
Week 8
No and No
Old Glory
Rookie Face Off
Adding it Up
Holding On
Jets Down
Unload and Reload
No Surprise
Career Paths
It Hurts
Week 7
Harbaugh Monday
Kids Camp
Barkley Back
Bird Battle
Mouse Time
Too Many?
Gone Shopping
Not Bad
40 for 3
Week 6
Try New
Night Vision
Trap Door
Looking Up
Wake Up Call
All Good Things
Bad Idea
Unexpected
Fire One
Week 5
Yes & Yes
Old Rivals
Rookie Sensation
So Close
Lunch in Seattle
Wake the Roosters
No Respect
Too Sweet
Turtle Flip
Week 4
Landmine
Bottoms Up
Winners and Losers
Call Me
Short Line
Reality Bites
Like Tonight
Uptick
Challenge Generates Performance
Week 3
Two Times
Reduced Value
Stars Down
The Other 21
Opportunity Knocks
Lots of Questions
Move Along People
Times Up
Week 2
Confidence Game
First and Second Picked QB's
Avoiding the Donut
Do or Die
One for the Road
Likewise
Adjustment Bureau
Down ... Not Out
Week 1
Time Marches On
Cashing the Trade
Start Here
Say What
Quick Up, Quick Down
Brazil Play Date
Top Two Open
Super Bowl Pick
Season Win Totals
Moving on Up
Breakout to Breakdown
Preseason 4
Preseason Wrap
Rookie Playoff Run
Preseason 3
Short Memory
Two In, One Up
Eagles Hunt
Winning Formula
Preseason 2
Quarterback Shuffle
One Two, or Two One
Starters Sit
Remote Control
Money be Damned
Preseason 1
One Season to the Next
Public Shift
Comets in the Night
Offseason
Mahomes Chasing History
All's Well that Ends Well
Ups and Downs
     
 
Look Who's Favored
by Dennis Ranahan

The National Football League opens their first full week of preseason action tonight with a pair of games. The first contest of the evening starts at 4:00 p.m. Pacific Time when the Houston Texans visit the New England Patriots. That game is followed by a 7:00 p.m. matchup from Seattle where the Seahawks host the Minnesota Vikings.

You know it is preseason when the Texans are favored in Foxboro over Bill Bilichick and his Patriots. This is a demonstration of how the coaches are approaching this game. The Patriots coach is not entering this season with the juggernaut squad he often enjoyed when Tom Brady was running his offense … even considering Brady would likely have seen little action in a preseason opener.

More than that, the Patriots are by some accounts predicted to finish at the bottom of their AFC Eastern Division Conference this season. Not only has New England dropped off in the past couple campaigns, even missed the playoffs last year, but they have a lot more questions than they have had in recent years.

On the Houston side, they are under the direction of first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans as the organization continues to hunt for a coach that can lead the Texans back to prominence.

First year head coaches in their initial preseason game have a very good record. Seems they want to get off on the right foot and put a little more emphasis on a straight-up win than a veteran sideline mentor.

For this reason, the books opened the Texans as a 1½ point favorite at New England, a point spread that has grown to 3½ points despite most of the public action backing the home team.

Why?

It can be deduced from this movement that while public money is on the home team the wise guy wagers are backing the visitors. In most cases, almost all cases, it is much better to be on the side of the wise guys than getting in the long public line.

So, take the Texans?

If you must, but you don’t have to.

I want no part of the Patriots in this spot, and am not going to lay extra points on the road with a suspect Texans team forced to give extra points on the line. When a point spread moves off an opening line it shifts the winner 7% of the time in the NFL. In other words, if the Texans were to go on and win this game, there is a 7% chance it will be by two or three points … marking them a game day loser on what would have been a winner on the opening number.

Those “wise guys” bets are not laying extra points, and we no longer have access to the better number. Which means this, game one of this week is for viewing purposes only.

In the second game of the day, the Seattle Seahawks are looking to build on their surprise success of 2022 which saw them sneak into the final National Football Conference playoff spot when the Detroit Lions upset the Green Bay Packers on the final day of last season’s regular season.

Don’t bet on it.

Seattle had a lot going for them in their first season in a decade without Russell Wilson running their offense. They pushed off that challenge with a spirited effort directed by Head Coach Pete Carroll. Now they come into action off a postseason year and are not likely to return to the playoffs this season.

Their opponent, the Minnesota Vikings, had the second best record in the NFC last season, but what has always been their franchise history, failed in the postseason.

As for tonight, we’ve got a couple games that will be the beginning building blocks to gauge the directions of these teams, but nothing that entices us to reach for our wallets.