It’s Sunday, February 9th and the National Football League will bring down the curtain on their 105th season when the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs square off in Super Bowl LIX. The game will be played in New Orleans, it is the eleventh time this has been the site of a Super Bowl, matching the most for a host city with Miami.

Twice the Super Bowl has been played in one of the participants' home stadiums. The first time was four years ago when Patrick Mahomes and his Chiefs suffered their only Super Bowl loss against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A year after the game was played at Raymond James Stadium, the Los Angeles Rams participated in Super Bowl LVI against the Cincinnati Bengals at SoFi Stadium.

The two teams that played a Super Bowl on their home field won, the underdog Buccaneers by a 31-9 score and the Rams by a 23-20 final margin. The Rams were 4½ point favorites.

While weather is not a factor in New Orleans under the Superdome, the lights went out during the game in Super Bowl XLVII when the San Francisco 49ers were tangling with the Baltimore Ravens. Early in the third quarter the Ravens had been dominating the action and appeared on their way to a huge winning margin.

Then, the lights went out in the Superdome. The 34-minute delay seemed to pump life into the 49ers and leave the Ravens flat when play resumed. From that moment on, the game became competitive with Joe Flacco and company hanging on for a narrow victory, 34-31.

Today’s game features a pair of teams the public bet against in their championship games. Two weeks ago, offensive rookie of the year Jayden Daniels was the talk of the football world. Nearly 75% of the wagers on their matchup in Philadelphia took the rookie QB and his Washington Commanders with the points on the spread.

It wasn’t enough points, the Eagles won the game, 55-23.

A majority of the bettors two weeks ago also thought the Buffalo Bills were in position to end the Chiefs bid for a third straight Super Bowl triumph. Didn’t happen, Patrick Mahomes and company won another close one, 32-29.

That has been the pattern for this Andy Reid coached squad in 2024; win ‘em close. They come into Super Bowl LIX on a record 17 game winning streak in contests decided by one score. While rolling to a league best 15-2 regular season mark, the Chiefs only outscored their opponents by a combined 59 points this season. That is the fewest positive point differential for any Kansas City Super Bowl participant. Contrast that number to the Chiefs opponent today, the Eagles outscored their opponents during the regular season by 160 points while compiling a 14-3 won/loss record.

The Eagles have the number one defense, scored 55 points in the NFC Championship Game and have lost only one game since their bye in Week Five. If all that is true, and it is, why the heck are the Eagles underdogs on the point spread today?

Five years ago, when the San Francisco 49ers met the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV, the 49ers had the edge in the pure numbers not unlike the Eagles do today. And, like the Eagles, they were slight underdogs on the point spread. I noted that while saying on the radio, “If the Niners have the better stats why are the Chiefs the favorite?”

It was one of the reasons I ended up on the Chiefs in the Super Bowl five years ago.

With that in mind, can’t I ask myself the same question this year? “If the Eagles have the stats over the Chiefs why is Kansas City favored on the point spread?”

One might think that posing that question would lead to the same answer, take the team the books have posted as a favorite in the face of the stats. After all, the books know what they are doing, following their lead is the best way to pile up point spread wins.

Yet sometimes the same basic circumstances can lead to different conclusions and results. Every game is unique, and it is the nuances of a contest that most often dictate the result.

The Chiefs are favored in this game because they are the defending champions looking for a third straight Vince Lombardi Trophy triumph. They are favored because the books respect their quarterback who brings a nine-game postseason winning streak into this contest. Two years ago, when the Chiefs edged the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII, the Eagles were slight favorites on the point spread. The Chiefs were also underdogs last season in their final three postseason wins over the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and 49ers.

What we have today is the better team getting points and motivated to avenge their loss two years ago. Before kickoff, the line may tick down to a pick 'em, but right now the number is still offering the Eagles plus a point on the line. The Chiefs are trying to make history with the first three-peat, that is not a motivational spike but rather a challenge that has never been conquered.

The motivation today is with the revenge minded Eagles who have all the weapons to get it done. In mid-November, when the Chiefs met the Bills at Highmark Stadium, Kansas City was undefeated and underdogs on the point spread. Many thought betting against an undefeated team getting points was ill advised, not me. I wrote that I thought there was a better chance of the Bills winning by double-digits than Kansas City extending their unbeaten streak.

In fact, the Bills went on to win the game by nine points, 30-21.

In a mirror prediction, I conclude there is a lot better chance of the Eagles winning by double digits today than the Chiefs capturing a third straight Super Bowl.

Qoxhi Picks: Philadelphia Eagles (+1) over Kansas City Chiefs