Does this sound familiar to you?

“I always lose my biggest bets.”

For many people that is true, and there is a logical reason for this to be. The public gravitates to what looks like the surest things, that is favorites that appear to have the least resistance to picking up an easy win. It is on those favorites that the typical bettor is most comfortable risking the most money.

Why is this an inherent problem?

Because teams with the least to worry about are also the teams with the greatest potential to suffer a motivational dip in their performance. Public perception is mirrored by the athletes involved in the game themselves. No matter how hard a coach will tell his team they have to be prepared to give their best against a seriously talent challenged opponent, he can’t inspire the greatest motivator of all … a fear of failure.

This year, the Baltimore Ravens opened the season in Kansas City and were within inches of deciding the game on a two-point conversion before the Baltimore receiver was shown to be out-of-bounds at the back of the endzone instead of scoring the late TD. The next week, the Ravens were at home against a feeble Las Vegas Raiders team that would go on to win only four games this season.

The talk in the football world was how the Ravens off a loss going home would kill the Raiders, and the opening point spread of eight points jumped to 9½ the first day the public got a chance to wager. You know Baltimore Head Coach John Harbaugh would have alerted his team that the Raiders were one of those teams capable of winning on any given Sunday, but believe it? Thoughts that anything but a Ravens home win was anything but 60 minutes of game clock away, was clearly outside not only the public opinion but that of the players themselves.

The final result in second week action found the Ravens dropping a second straight game and the Raiders picking up one of their rare victories in 2024. Baltimore, now on full alert, went on to win their next five games over higher quality opponents including three teams that advanced to this year’s postseason: the Buffalo Bills, Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Then, their five-game winning streak was snapped, in another game they thought they could just toss their helmets on the field and expect an easy win. Their third loss of the year came against the Cleveland Browns, a team that was to only win a league low three games this season while finishing last in the AFC North Division.

Talent versus motivation. What carries the day? Not either exclusively, but when push comes to shove and the point spread is factored into the equation, motivation is the more consistent element that feeds winning wagers.

The public is a heat seeking missile for mismatches, and that will often land them on teams with the greatest chance to come up flat. And still, don’t you know the bettors would have been much more confident risking their money on the Ravens over the Raiders or Browns and be on their way to a straight-up loss? More often, it is the point spread that catches the better teams, those squads good enough to overcome a motivational trap with a straight-up win but fail to cover a bloated line.

Motivation will play a role this Sunday when two quality teams square off in Super Bowl LIX. It is not the case of a quality team up against an inferior opponent, but rather a case of a quality team on full alert while their opponent is looking to clear a hurdle.

For nearly two weeks now, we have added stories on the upcoming Super Bowl that have left crumbs to follow on which way we are leaning on this contest. It is getting harder and harder to not just reveal our pick, but I resist one more time with a nod and assurance we’ve got the more motivated team pegged this Sunday.