The conference champions have arrived in New Orleans and are preparing for their battle in Super Bowl LIX scheduled for Caesars Superdome this Sunday.
So many edges and factors are in play for these two teams. One can get lost in the coaching tendencies and whether the Philadelphia Eagles number one defense has an edge over the Kansas City Chiefs led by the quarterback who rides a nine-game postseason winning streak into this contest and always appears to have the key to leading the Chiefs to a win.
In 2024, Patrick Mahomes had statistically the worst year of his career but led the Chiefs to more wins than any previous season and back to the Super Bowl. While the Chiefs are looking to become the first team to win three straight Super Bowls, they have already accomplished something no team in history ever had … playing in a third straight Super Bowl after winning the previous two.
Yes, the Chiefs are looking to become the first team to three-peat, but it is no little feat that they are also the first team to ever have a chance to accomplish that goal on Super Sunday. The previous eight teams that opened a season looking for a third straight Super Bowl triumph, lost before the Roman Numeral game was played. Four were eliminated in their conference championship games, three earlier in the playoffs, and one missed the postseason all together. After the Denver Broncos won a second straight Super Bowl to complete the 1998 season, their Hall of Fame Quarterback, John Elway, retired. Without him behind center, the Broncos promptly dropped to a last place finish in their division race.
This year’s Chiefs team, the fifth to advance to a Super Bowl under Andy Reid, had the lowest number of points scored over their opponents as any of his previous teams to reach this pinnacle of the NFL season. They started this quest to become the first team to win three straight Vince Lombardi Trophies after outscoring their regular season opponents by 127 points in 2022 while compiling a 14-3 won/loss record. Last season, they were 11-6 during the season while scoring 77 more points than their opponents.
In 2024, the Chiefs had an NFL best 15-2 mark, which included giving away a meaningless game to them on the final day of the regular season in Denver while the Broncos were in need of a win to crack the playoff field. In all, Kansas City scored only 59 more points on the season than their opponents. Kansas City also compiled a losing point spread record, seven wins against ten losses.
But, before you say that is a reason for the Eagles to win this week, know the Chiefs have not been a strong point spread team during Mahomes’ seven seasons as the starting quarterback in Kansas City. In all, since 2018, the Chiefs are 57-56-3 against the spread in the regular season.
Then comes the playoffs, where Mahomes has been unbeatable in nearly three full seasons while compiling a 7-2 mark against the spread in the nine postseason games leading up to Super Bowl LIX.
Right now, there is a slight majority of bettors taking the Eagles to beat the Chiefs this Sunday.
Somehow, I get the feeling as the game grows closer, more of the late decisions will be to go with the proven winner. When that is factored into the myriad of elements to be considered in this game, Mahomes just may tip the scales the Chiefs way in public opinion.
Whether that is enough to turn the final score into a successful three-peat effort is more open for debate.