In the summer of 1983, I took my young family on a vacation to Disneyland. While my wife and two kids enjoyed the attractions at the Magic Kingdom, I took time away to keep a scheduled appointment with Mort Olshan, founder and publisher of The Gold Sheet.
In contrast to the sports handicapping industry in those days that was littered with charlatans offering unrealistic claims of winning percentages, Olshan was a staple in the sports handicapping industry since 1957. He published his popular betting information that was delivered in a format that fit easily into a vest pocket.
I was so appreciative he made time to meet with me in his Los Angeles office and had a lengthy conversation with him where he did most of the talking and I did nearly all the listening. I had founded Qoxhi Picks just two years earlier and focused my point spread selections mostly tied to the motivational factors I had been graphing since 1965.
“The better teams don’t always win,” Olshan counseled, “But that is the side you want to bet on.”
I avoided my temptation to disagree overtly with the man who earned his reputation with integrity and early on took the lead in the tout business before computers and the internet. His information was geared to inform readers so they could make better choices on their point spread plays. It was sound from a statistical perspective but lacked the motivational factors that I lead with.
The closest I got to challenging Olshan was when I said, “I think motivation plays at least as much of a role in the outcome of the games as talent.”
He smiled, sat back in his swivel chair, and replied, “Oh sure, if you could unlock what drives motivation you would really have something.”
I only smiled and nodded, and didn't declare to him that I thought I had cornered the market on uncovering motivation. I never mentioned that the previous National Football League season we beat the point spread on all our weekly top picks with motivation the primary driver on our selections.
More than four decades later, I still think motivation is the most important factor in beating the point spread. Talent matters, for sure, but motivation drives the results. This year’s playoff series offers a clear example of the importance of motivation.
A year after I met with Olshan we added computers to the Qoxhi Picks offices in San Francisco. The most adept at working that technology early on was Paul Ranahan, my nephew, who was still a few years away from starting college at Cal Berkeley. He and I spent hours going over what stats to include in a program we simply referred to as “The Monster.” His programming skills allowed us to massage the numbers to ultimately reflect real team strengths.
We still use that formula today and before this year’s NFL postseason kicked off, we had the 14 squads that advanced to the playoffs ranked in order by what The Monster revealed were real talent strengths.
The team at the top of the list by that formula was the Baltimore Ravens, followed in order by the Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings, Houston Texans, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders, Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams.
Based on talent alone, if we are to trust the rankings The Monster generates, we might have projected that the Ravens would be preparing to meet the Eagles next Sunday. But that would be to turn a blind eye on what I think is more important than talent … motivation.
While the Eagles were the top NFC team by this standard, note the Chiefs rank only above the Rams among all 14 teams that advanced. Yet, we have picked the Chiefs in their first two postseason games this year over the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills … why?
Because they were challenged on their home field and had, based on our research, what Olshan said was most important if you could corner that element, motivation.
Consider this, the most lopsided matchup on pure talent in the Wild Card weekend was the Ravens over the Steelers. Baltimore also gave the most points on the spread that weekend, the only double-digit favorite on the card, and yet won by the lowest margin on the first day of the playoffs. Fortunately, for us, they did cover the point spread with a 14-point victory, but the Top Pick win that week was the underdog Texans over the Chargers, who won by 20 points, 32-12.
Other Wild Card winners were also mostly one-sided affairs, with the Bills winning by 24, the Rams by 18 and the Eagles by a dozen points. The underdog Commanders got by the Buccaneers on the road by a field goal.
When the Bills met the Chiefs last week they had a talent edge, but the motivational advantage we determined was with Kansas City and that was enough to have us offer Patrick Mahomes and company as the pick. It was close, but Kansas City won and became the first team in NFL history to return to a Super Bowl on the heels of back-to-back wins in the Roman Numeral game.
This week, the Eagles have a clear talent advantage on our charts over the Chiefs, but does Kansas City get the motivational edge in their quest to become the first NFL team to three-peat?
As Olshan said to me in 1981, “If you could unlock what drives motivation you would really have something.”
I agree.