Follow the money.
It is a common expression that is used in business, crime and in my lifetime, made most famous by “Deep Throat” during the Watergate corruption. Deep Throat was the pseudonym used by the inside informant that was years later revealed to be FBI Associate Director Mark Felt. He was feeding inside information to Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein. Following the money in that circumstance led to the resignation of President Richard Nixon.
While we don’t have anything quite so consequential to the country as the information offered by an informant that led to Nixon’s downfall, there is a lot of money to follow when taking a look at this year’s Super Bowl. Recent reports peg the number of people in the United States wagering on the game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs this week is 68 million. In other words, about a quarter of the United States population will have a vested interest in the outcome of Super Bowl LVIII.
A big majority of that money will take either the 49ers or Chiefs in the game, a contest that currently has the 49ers favored by two points. Another large chunk of change will wager on whether the two teams will combine for more or less than 47 points. And still another bit of money will take sides on propositions that go all the way from the length of time it will take to sing the National Anthem to who will capture the game’s Most Valuable Player.
How much money?
Twenty-three … wait for it … billion dollars according to sources with information to judge such figures.
Twenty-Three Billion dollars!
That’s a lot. A lot of money to follow.
It is also a figure that the National Football League no longer has grounds to hide. In the years prior to 2018, when the Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on state authorized sports betting, the NFL treated gambling like an evil vice that they discouraged. Then dollar signs showed up for them as more and more states permitted sports gambling. With the dollars in the offing, the NFL suddenly became the single biggest outlet for promoting operations like DraftKings and FanDuel sportsbooks.
The league is now raking in big bucks for their involvement in an activity that they once deemed to be evil. I suspect we all know what will happen next, the league will prey on those that develop a problem gambling addiction first with warnings, and then programs individuals can pay for to cure the problem the league fed them.
It is much like advice I got some years ago from a good friend and bookie. I was talking about possible promotions for Qoxhi Picks, and he said, “You’ve got to go where your likely customers are. When I’m looking for new clients, I go gambling anonymous meetings.”
Follow the money.
So, how can we use that rule to help isolate which team will beat the spread in Super Bowl LVIII?
The wise guy money doesn’t always win, it certainly took its bumps this season with our selections. But, trust me, you wouldn’t want the all-time record betting against smart money. In Super Bowl LVIII, nearly 70% of the individual wagers are backing Patrick Mahomes and his defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Yet, despite that high percentage of individuals taking the Chiefs, the money wagered on the game is such that it leaves the 49ers in the favorite role pretty much with the number they started.
How can 70% of the bets be on the Chiefs, and the 49ers remain a two point favorite?
Because the books don’t move the line based on the number of bets, but rather the amount of money. Which means this, the public likes the Chiefs and the wise guys are on the 49ers.
Take your pick from those two options.