This season, the weather at National Football League games was mostly mild. We had only a few occasions where wind, rain or snow could be considered to affect the play on the field.
This weekend, that streak of mild weather has been broken. Two of the four outdoor games in the Wild Card Weekend will definitely have weather conditions that could greatly affect the play on the field. Tonight, the Kansas City Chiefs host the Miami Dolphins in conditions that are driving down ticket prices. Temperatures will be zero or below and the wind chill factor will make for a very frigid night.
Conditions for the Pittsburgh Steelers visit to the Buffalo Bills were slated to be so severe tomorrow, the game has been rescheduled to be played on Monday afternoon.
It is considered that bad weather conditions most often lead to lower scoring games which can also be interpreted to add value to points on the spread. The Chiefs are not as good as they have been in past seasons, and tonight they are going to have to lay as many as five points in a game that, before the weather was known to be a factor, had them favored by 1½ points on the opening line.
The reason for this rise in the number of points the Chiefs have to give is not only because bad weather makes points on the spread more valuable, but because of the Dolphins dismal record in cold conditions. With temperatures simply below 40 degrees, the Dolphins have a lifetime record of 25-46-1 straight-up. As the weather turns colder, the Dolphins record drops to even worse.
These conditions and the Dolphins problems in cold conditions could compensate for a Chiefs team that is a step or more off recent editions presented by Andy Reid. Still, laying extra points in the cold conditions with a Chiefs team not as good as the one that finished last season hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy, seems less than wise. But, taking the Dolphins in these conditions is absolutely inadvisable.