While finishing his degree at Cal, Berkeley, my nephew, Paul Ranahan, developed a mathematical chart to determine when a National Football League team had a point spread that was high or low for them. Paul had been working with me since he was in grade school, first stuffing envelopes and later working on games from a statistical perspective.
Math savvy runs in the family, his Dad, was a cost accountant for a major firm in San Francisco.
While studying to earn his degree, Paul also spent some considerable time and effort studying point spreads in the NFL. He came up with a method that showed when a team had a point spread higher than they had beaten in the past not by the spread alone, but how that number matches up against the opponent and that week’s current line.
No need to go into the mechanics of the method here, but only to state that like any set of numbers they require interpretation to translate them into something useful.
Initially, Paul and I thought that when a team was priced higher on this chart they would be most likely to lose that point spread decision. When they were priced lower, they would be most likely to cover the line.
Turns out that most often works, but it also generated some glaring errors. That is, we saw a team way overpriced and then cover easily and, on other occasions, be well under their established Point Spread Price and fail in that game.
What gives?
Turns out that the smartest people in this game, the ones that set the line and give bettors a choice at either side and consistently beat them, have their tricks too. There are those games that they see so out of whack that they set a spread that lights-up our point spread price chart but directs us in the wrong direction.
Seems that they know when to give or take too many points when a game they see is weighted heavily in one direction. Not by public opinion, but rather wise guy money.
It’s like the books put a team on sale to help move them, while they are selling a loser.
Seems that is what we have tonight when the Las Vegas Raiders host the Los Angeles Chargers.
The wrong team appears to be favored, and they are giving three points even after opening before the game was released to the books with the Chargers favored by 3½ points. Then, Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert was declared out and the line shifted sides.
That’s right, the wise guys moved the opening line before the books posted it 6½ points against the Chargers.
What do they know?
More than the public which is buying up the Chargers side of this proposition like a lot of sale items are snatched up on Black Friday.
The books are yelling with their megaphones, “Sale on aisle 10.”
Don’t go for it, pay the price with the line up front and I’ll meet you at the payout window tonight.
Qoxhi Picks: Las Vegas Raiders (-3) over Los Angeles Chargers