National Football League teams can be split into three groups. The first group, in most seasons, consists of four or five teams that are special. Squads that are good enough to win whether the circumstances support them or not. This year, teams such as the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, who meet on Sunday, are in this top category.
Another group of four or five teams are the squads that aren’t good enough to consistently win even when the situational factors favor them. In 2023, the Carolina Panthers and New York Jets are among these bad teams. Still, one needs to be open to the possibility of unexpected upsets as evidenced this season when the only Eagles loss of the year was suffered against the Jets.
Even rules get beat sometimes.
Then there are the middle teams, those 16 squads in the NFL that on a consistent basis are talented enough to take advantage of a good situation and not skilled to the level of being able to overcome a bad one.
These are my favorite teams because they are the most predictable. I like it most when two middle teams meet and one of them has significant advantages on situational and motivational charts.
We have one of those games this week when the Tennessee Titans host the Indianapolis Colts. As recently as two years ago, the Titans earned the top seed in the American Football Conference. That year, 2021, The Titans 12-5 regular season mark was only matched by the dozen wins the Kansas City Chiefs earned that season. The Titans got the home field advantage based on a tiebreaker, but didn’t cash that advantage for any gains.
They lost their only postseason game that season to the eventual AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals, who got a win over the Titans despite allowing Joe Burrow to be sacked 11 times.
The Titans haven’t enjoyed nearly as much success since that Divisional Round loss to the Bengals, 19-16. They missed the playoffs last year while winning 7 of their 17 games, and this year have also lost more games than they have won with a four and seven mark.
Not good, but not horrible.
Their opposition on Sunday, the Colts, come to down with six wins in 11 decisions in Shane Steichen’s first year as head coach. When you consider that Steichen has played most of the season without two of his most important offensive weapons, the job he has done is more commendable than his record. The Colts spent their first pick in the 2023 draft to acquire quarterback Anthony Richardson.
The Florida Gators product was off to an excellent rookie season before his campaign was cut short by a season ending shoulder injury suffered in the fifth week of the season against these same Titans. The Colts won that game, 23-16, but suffered the bigger loss with the injury to their emerging young star.
The Colts expected to open the season with one of the best running backs in the league, Jonathan Taylor, joining Richardson in the backfield. But, the talented running back was sidelined with an injury early, and suffered another setback last week that will put him on the shelf again for multiple weeks.
What that leaves the Colts with is an offense under the direction of quarterback Gardner Minshew. He was a sixth round choice by the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2019 out of Washington State, he also played two college seasons at East Carolina. After two years with the Jaguars, he spent the next two NFL campaigns with the Philadelphia Eagles before joining Indianapolis this season.
He started training camp with Indianapolis in competition with Richardson and didn’t win the job, but was handed the Colts reins after the injury suffered by the rookie signal caller. Minshew is a capable backup, with enough talent to lead a team to a win in the right situation.
But not a guy that is going to overcome a bad spot.
Like this week, when two average teams hook up to generate a win for the home team.
Qoxhi Picks: Tennessee Titans (pk) over Indianapolis Colts