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I Do Believe
by Dennis Ranahan

Things don’t always go according to the plan.

Just ask the New York Jets, who spent the off-season first pursuing, then praising, and finally promoting Aaron Rodgers as their long suffering franchise’s savior.

First series of downs in 2023, and Rodgers is lost for the year to an achilles injury.

The Jets are not the only team this year that has had to make adjustments when their starting quarterback was sidelined with an injury or ineffectiveness. After a rocky start, three straight losses, the Minnesota Vikings were in the market to trade Kirk Cousins while surrendering this was not their year. No trade came to fruition and Cousins suddenly was playing the best football of his career. He had the Vikings on their way to their fourth victory in five weeks, only a loss to the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs, interrupting a perfect October. Then, like Rodgers, Cousins is lost for the season with an achilles tear.

Last week, seven quarterbacks who started the season deep on their squads depth charts started for NFL teams. Cousin’s replacement in Minnesota, Joshua Dobbs, was acquired from the Arizona Cardinals after Cousins was injured and admitted he didn’t know the names of all the players in his huddle. Still, he was able to direct an upset win over the Atlanta Falcons, 31-28.

Tyson Bagent has been forced to start four games for the Chicago Bears while starter Justin Fields recovers from an injury on the thumb on his throwing hand. He’s won half of his starts, and two wins is more victories than the Bears had accumulated in the prior 16 games with Fields running their offense dating back to a year ago October.

The Oakland Raiders, using terminology used by their former legendary head coach, John Madden, opened a new can of quarterbacks last week. Kevin O’Connell replaced Jimmy Garoppolo for interim head coach Antonio Pierce.

What and who?

Pierce does have some head coaching experience, he served that role at Long Beach Poly High School. But, opening his first game with a rookie quarterback, fourth round choice out of
Purdue, O’Connell, seemed a stretch for a Raiders team that at times this season has looked downright awful.

But it worked.

The Raiders lit up the visiting New York Giants, 30-6, and celebrated the victory in their locker room like they just won a playoff game.

Truth of the matter is, history will show that an unknown quarterback can often burst on the scene with a surprise win. The reason is, opposing defenses don’t yet know what they are dealing with but are still confident against a backup. The quarterback himself is faced with the prospect of having a bitter baptism into his professional career, which puts him in the best chance to succeed.

Then, in almost all cases, reality sets in.

It doesn’t always have to be this way. Two players who were drafted in rounds lower than O’Connell did follow up first week success with more success. Tom Brady, a sixth round draft choice to name one, and Brock Purdy, who was pressed into duty after a pair of injuries sidelined the first two men on the San Francisco depth chart last season were lost.

But, if you want to assume after his first successful outing that O’Connell can pace the success of Brady and Purdy, you are drawing the short straw. We have a lot longer list of one game wonders who never achieved similar success for the rest of their short NFL careers.

Which brings us to tomorrow's game in Las Vegas when Pierce trots his rookie back into an NFL war against one of the best defenses in football, the New York Jets. The Jets are led by Zach Wilson, who was a blue chip prospect coming out of college, the second overall pick in the draft, and a primary reason New York went out and paid a hefty price in acquiring Rodgers to replace him.

Wilson has been mostly a major disappointment, and his inability to move the Jets offense was never more on display than in last week’s Monday Night Football loss against the Los Angeles Chargers.

What does that land us with in Vegas on Sunday night?

A Jets team off a loss with a solid defense and a quarterback that is on full alert that he needs to find a rhythm to keep his job. Against a Raiders team with a first-year head coach and a rookie quarterback that got all his motivational juices spent last Sunday in his debut victory.

One and done for the Raiders win streak I do believe.

Qoxhi Picks: New York Jets (pk) over Las Vegas Raiders