The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals close out Sunday National Football League action tonight with a primetime contest at 1 Paycor Stadium. These two teams met in a pair of memorable games last season.

The first contest between these two AFC elite squads took place on January 2nd in Cincinnati, and that was the game that was halted after Bills Defensive Back Damar Hamlin suffered a life threatening injury. Not finishing that game between a pair of division winners threw the playoff seedings into unknown territory. Eventually, the Bills were declared to have home field advantage over the Bengals and met Cincinnati in the Divisional Round in Buffalo.

Favored by six points on the spread, the Bills finished their season like they always have, with a loss. The Bengals dominated the action in Buffalo on their way to a convincing 27-10 victory. The following week, the Bengals met the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game and relinquished their one year hold on the AFC title with a narrow loss to the Patrick Mahomes home team.

Tonight, the Bengals and Bills renew their rivalry and both teams are coming off wins. Not as many as when they met last January when the Bengals were riding a seven game winning streak and the Bills had won their six previous games before the Hamlin injury ended that contest.

Both the Bengals and Bills have had some rough weeks this season. The Bills opened with a surprise setback against the New York Jets, allowing a ten point halftime lead to end in an overtime loss. After that defeat, the Bills seemed to reestablish themselves among the NFL elite with three straight lopsided wins over the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins.

But, just when one might have thought Josh Allen and company had hit a winning stride, they suffered a loss in London to the Jacksonville Jaguars. After a narrow victory over the New York Giants, Buffalo was upset by the talent challenged New England Patriots. Buffalo did pick up a win a week ago Thursday over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and have had 10 days to prepare for tonight’s battle in Cincinnati.

The Bengals season started on a sour note, they opened with a one sided defeat in Cleveland, 27-3, and lost three of their first four contests before earning three straight wins the past three weeks over the Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.

Some will attribute the Bengals slow start to quarterback Joe Burrow, who didn’t play during the preseason with a calf injury and was not 100% over the first month of this campaign. Now, certainly off his impressive performance last Sunday against San Francisco, the highest paid player in the league appears back in stellar form.

So, who gets the edge tonight?

Either Allen or Burrow are capable of leading their teams to a win, but the eye of the tiger in this contest by our estimation does not belong to the Bengals, but the visitors.

When Buffalo has been motivated this season, they have been dominant. Tonight, against a team that knocked them out of the playoffs on their home field last January, offers a prime spot for the Bills to exact revenge on the Bengals in their home stadium.

As for the Bengals, their win last week in San Francisco was accomplished while the 49ers had spent the week preparing to battle Cincinnati with backup quarterback Sam Darnold running their offense. The 49ers brilliant second-year signal caller, Brock Purdy, was in concussion protocol and wasn’t even considered a possibility for the game until Friday afternoon.

Few things are more motivationally debilitating for an NFL team than thinking they are going to have to overcome the loss of their starting quarterback and then surprised by his availability. The motivation to overcome his loss is replaced by the overconfidence from him being back.

That means, the Bengals win in San Francisco last week at Levi’s Stadium was likely a product of an overconfident San Francisco team.

Something the Bills won’t be tonight.

Qoxhi Picks: Buffalo Bills (+2½) over Cincinnati Bengals