The National Football League’s International series lands the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs in Germany on Sunday. The game will start in Frankfort at 2:30 p.m. local time, I guess we should be thankful that the game isn’t on a 1:00 p.m. schedule, which would have made the starting time in Las Vegas at 5:00 a.m.
Should be thankful perhaps, but I’m not. The fact is, the game will kickoff at 6:30 a.m. Pacific Time, which is still an hour and a half before our deadline for releasing NFL Sunday selections. The starting time eliminates Qoxhi from releasing a game played in Europe because I will not have clients logging onto the site and find out a selection kicked off more than an hour earlier.
Too bad we eliminate this game, because it is a good one.
The Dolphins, in 2023, have the most explosive offense in football, a distinction that could have been credited to the Chiefs in recent years. The Dolphins success is geared around speed and fourth year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has quieted many of the critics who thought selecting Justin Herbert with their first pick in the 2020 draft would have been wiser than taking the Alabama quarterback.
Turns out, both choices produced solid field generals, and if Tagovailoa continues to avoid injuries he is even more dynamic than Herbert. The Dolphins signal caller also has a better won/loss record than the Los Angeles Chargers quarterback.
The Dolphins opponent on Sunday is more reliant than ever on the considered best quarterback in the League, Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are not as dynamic on the offensive side of the ball this season. Nine teams have scored more than the 187 tallied by the Mahomes led offense. But, the Chiefs defense has been a notch better than recent editions, their 129 points allowed ranks among the best in the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens have allowed the fewest this season, 121.
Kansas City opened the season with a home loss in the Thursday night contest reserved for the defending Super Bowl winner. Only three other teams lost at home in that Thursday night tradition that began in 2004, and two of those three teams went on to miss the playoffs. Still, the Chiefs responded with six consecutive wins before they were upset on the road last Sunday by the Denver Broncos.
I heard on the radio this week an announcer picking the Chiefs in this game because Mahomes and Reid “always” respond to a loss with a big win.
Actually, the Chiefs with Mahomes at quarterback do respond to losses with solid efforts, they are 12-3 coming off a loss. But, in those same 15 games, the Chiefs are 8 and 7 against the point spread and 5-4 against the number on the road as a favorite.
Not an automatic play on the Chiefs simply because they lost last week.
The Dolphins two losses this season, both Kansas City and Miami come into this game with six and two won loss records, have been suffered against quality opposition. They were hammered by the Buffalo Bills, 48-20, the week after they scored 70 points against the Broncos, and were handed their second loss of the season two weeks ago against the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles, 31-17. All six of the Dolphins wins have come against teams with losing records. The Chiefs winning column includes a pair of victories over teams with winning records.
Does that bend this game to the Chiefs?
Well, you play who is on your schedule, and the reason the Dolphins and Chiefs have played a lot of teams with losing marks is because they have pinned those teams with a defeat. This is a contest that I can guarantee will not be on our Sunday morning releases, but it’s only because of the starting time and not because I don’t like the Dolphins.
I do.
Qoxhi Picks: Miami Dolphins (+2) over Kansas City Chiefs