Four weeks ago, the New England Patriots suffered their second straight lopsided loss, losing at home to the New Orleans Saints, 34-0, while favored on the point spread. The prior Sunday, the Patriots were mauled in Dallas by the Cowboys, 38-3. In the first six weeks of this season New England managed only one win, a narrow 15-10 triumph over the New York Jets.
This is not the Patriots team we had come accustomed to seeing under the leadership of Bill Belichick during his team’s days of glory while Tom Brady was running his offense. Then, as surprising as their dramatic drop in performance, New England came up with a huge upset win over their AFC East Division rivals, the Buffalo Bills, 29-25.
Last Sunday, in their return contest of the season against the division leading Miami Dolphins, Belichick’s crew suffered their second loss of the year to Mike McDaniel’s squad, 31-17. Eight weeks into the 2022 campaign the Patriots have two wins, gained against a weak Jets squad and in their upset over the overconfident Bills. In the only game they were favored on the point spread, against the Saints four weeks ago, they got blown out at home by 34 points.
Yet, in this week’s matchup, following their upset over Buffalo and 14 point loss to the Dolphins, New England is favored against the Washington Commanders when they visit Foxboro on Sunday.
How bad do the Commanders have to be to be getting points on the spread against New England?
Not bad enough by our count.
Washington, under Head Coach Ron Rivera, have also had some solid efforts this season despite winning only three of their first eight games. Note, by the way, that that is one more victory than the favored Patriots have earned this year. Following a sixth week victory over the Atlanta Falcons, Washington has dropped a pair of games to the talent starved New York Giants and defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. In fact, two of the Commanders five losses this year have been suffered against Philadelphia, a pair of games that the Commanders were competitive in while losing by three and seven points. Those results added up to a point spread win and push for Washington.
So, if our numbers show the Commanders are the better team this year in a battle between two lower echelon squads, why are they underdogs on Sunday at New England?
Statistically, the Patriots appear to have the better defense while allowing opponents only 3.4 yards per carry and 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Numbers in that range most often would point to a good NFL team. But, in the Patriots case, those stats don’t add up to success on the field. New England has allowed more points than every team in the American Football Conference except the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos. And, it is worth noting that while Denver has allowed 226 points this season, that includes one afternoon when they surrendered 70 in a 50 point loss to the Dolphins.
In point differential, the Patriots are also near the bottom. Their minus 90 points on the season is the worst in the AFC and only the New York Giants have been outscored by more points in all of football. The Giants have been outscored by 92 points this year.
The Commanders, off two losses, are in no position to take any opponent for granted. But, they are good enough to beat a Patriots team that has no business being favored.
Qoxhi Picks: Washington Commanders (+3) over New England Patriots