As we enter the final week of National Football League action in October, the weather is beginning to turn and today we have some conditions that could affect play on the field. Snow is possible in Denver where the Broncos host the Kansas City Chiefs. Rain will greet the Jets and Giants for their game today at MetLife Stadium and there are possible showers forecasted in Pittsburgh when the Steelers host the Jacksonville Jaguars.
While still listed as a game time decision, it appears likely that San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy will start today when the 49ers host the Cincinnati Bengals. Purdy began to show symptoms of a concussion on the 49ers flight home from Minnesota after the Vikings upset San Francisco on Monday night. The injury occurred in the fourth quarter when Purdy dove into the defense to pick up a first down.
The 49ers opened as a six point favorite in this contest that will be played at Levi’s Stadium, and with the announcement that Purdy was in concussion protocol the line dropped to the home team favored by 3½ points. Now, with the likely return of Purdy, the point spread has climbed back up to five points or more.
On our charts, the 49ers prospects of winning this game against the spread were better if Sam Darnold got the start and the line was shaved to 3½ points. That is based more on the motivational factor that the 49ers would have their performance spiked by the need to overcome the loss of their starting quarterback. Now that he has returned, San Francisco could actually be at a disadvantage of being overconfident despite losing their two most recent games.
While no team has remained unbeaten this season, the Carolina Panthers are the only squad this year that has not won a game. Today, they play the Houston Texans in a contest that features the top two draft choices from this year's college allotment of talent. The Panthers, with a selection gained from a trade with the Chicago Bears, had the first pick in this year’s draft and chose Bryce Young out of the University of Alabama. With the second pick in the 2023 draft, the Texans selected Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.
Stroud has had an excellent rookie season while leading Houston to three wins in six decisions. Young, we expect, will get his first professional victory today.
The Miami Dolphins host the New England Patriots today in a game that has first place Miami coming off a loss, they were downed by the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday night, against a Patriots team that upset the Buffalo Bills last Sunday in Foxboro. What we have here is a first place team off a loss against a last place team following a win.
Seems easy to take the Dolphins.
Yet, while the public is of that mindset, the point spread indicates there is smart money backing Bill Belichick with the generous point spread, which at times has reached double digits. The wise guy money doesn’t always win, but one better have some real good reasons to go against smart money. In this game, we simply don’t.
As for the public, they are not restrained by such caution, and once again they are backing three favorites for their most bet teams of the week. After five winning weeks the public has lost two of their top three picks in each of the past two weekends. Today, the most bet game by the public is the Philadelphia Eagles (-7) over the Washington Commanders. The next two most popular public plays for Week Eight are the Kansas City Chiefs (-7) over the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins (-9) over the New England Patriots.
As for Qoxhi Picks, our selections are now posted on this site and if a Bullet Play develops in the final hour leading up to the day’s first kickoff it will be added to the list of recommendations by 9:45 a.m. Pacific Time.