When I was growing up my dad used to tell me, “You take home the girl you brought to the dance.”
He used it in many situations, always meaning it as a guide to be loyal and honest. Sticking with your own beliefs and not being swayed by influences that did not represent your character.
It’s a nice thing to remember from the many important lessons my dad imparted on me during his lifetime, but it is a real bad rule when it comes to picking National Football League games. Who won for you last week, last month, or even the first couple months of the season are not the same teams likely to pay dividends over the second half of a campaign.
Why?
Because forces are working against a team with an extended winning streak expanding on their point spread success for the whole season. First, opponents are more prepared to battle a team that comes to the game on the heels of winning streaks. An opponent with a real fear of failure against a particular opponent will likely have a spirited week of practice and be prepared to meet the challenge.
Second, the bookmakers are keenly aware of what teams the public have been winning with and know their customers will be going back to the same winning well to try and cash again. To combat this, the books will set lines that not only reflect the prior success of squads but also tip the wagering edge in the opposite direction.
If a team has a particularly negative run and then has a bye week to regroup, they often come out of their week away from the rigors of playing with a new dedication and focus on what it takes to win. To take that out of theory and put it into a real life example for this season, I offer the Carolina Panthers.
In his first season as their head coach, Frank Reich has failed to earn a win over the first seven weeks of the 2023 campaign. Not a straight up win and not even a point spread triumph through their first six games.
It started for the Panthers with a loss to the Atlanta Falcons on opening day, a game in which they were tied going to the fourth quarter and then surrendered a pair of touchdowns to lose by 14 points, 24-10. The score was worse than the actual play on the field which saw Carolina gain more yards rushing and more yards passing than the home-standing Falcons. The defeat was tied mainly to a negative three in the turnover battle as rookie first pick in the draft Bryce Young tossed a pair of interceptions and the Panthers also suffered the only turnover in the game by a fumble.
Okay, they lost on the road in their opener, but how about their top draft choice in his first home game?
Another competitive battle, but another loss on the scoreboard and the closest they got on the spread this season with a three point loss to the New Orleans Saints while getting three points on the line. That defeat was followed by a ten point loss in Seattle and a home game against the Minnesota Vikings in which Carolina took a 13 point lead only to have a couple miscues on offense allow Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings to turn a double-digit deficit into a 21-13 point spread clearing road victory.
Since that competitive loss to Minnesota, the Panthers were blown out twice leading to their bye week by the Detroit Lions, 42-24, and 42-21 by the Miami Dolphins. Carolina was a two touchdown underdog in Miami and scored the first 14 points of the game before getting steamrolled for three quarters.
Those six losses are what the Panthers have been stuck with during their two weeks of preparation for tomorrow's game against the Houston Texans.
The Texans had the second pick in this year’s NFL draft, and after Carolina took Bryce Young with a pick they got in a trade with the Chicago Bears, Houston chose Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud with the second overall selection. So far, it would be difficult to argue that Houston didn’t get the better of the two highest rated quarterbacks in this year’s draft.
Stroud has elevated the Texans from horrible to entertaining and victorious in three of their first six games. What we have on Sunday in Carolina is the top two picks in this year’s draft and a pair of coaches serving their first season on the sidelines with their teams. Houston is coached by DeMeco Ryans, who the Texans plucked off the San Francisco 49ers coaching staff to run their show.
Given the success of the Texans, they haven’t lost a point spread decision since the second week of the season, and the problems the winless Panthers are confronting, one might think Houston would be favored by more points than the books opened this line at, which was three. The public has bought the road favorite in this contest and moved the line up to Houston by 3½ points.
Lot in common in this game. First-year head coaches, the first two picks in last year’s draft and a pair of teams coming off their bye week. What is different, is that the Texans spent the last two weeks no doubt having their confidence buoyed by success and the Panthers had the spike in motivation with the need to overcome.
Need over celebration every time.
The Texans may have been a good team to open the 2023 dance with, but contrary to dad’s advice, they are not the team to bet on this week.
Qoxhi Picks: Carolina Panthers (+3½) over Houston Texans